The European automotive industry faces ongoing challenges, with declining sales and profitability issues exacerbated by high costs, particularly for Volkswagen, which is laying off workers and closing factories. Despite a slight recovery post-pandemic, new car registrations remain below pre-crisis levels. Other manufacturers like Ford and Nissan are also announcing layoffs. Stellantis, while currently stable, reports significant profit drops, highlighting the broader struggles within the sector influenced by economic factors and shifting market demands.
The Struggles of the European Automotive Industry
It’s hard to ignore the ongoing challenges plaguing the European automotive sector, a situation that has persisted for some time. The repercussions of this crisis are becoming increasingly apparent, as companies implement internal strategies and shifts to counteract declining car sales and aim to maintain profitability—or at least minimize losses.
Despite a promising recovery following the pandemic, the European automotive market has yet to return to the levels it experienced before the crisis. In 2019, the market enjoyed a sixth consecutive year of growth, reaching over 15.3 million registered vehicles—an increase of 1.2%. Fast forward to 2023, and while new car registrations rose by 13.7% to 12.8 million, this still falls short by 2.5 million cars compared to pre-COVID figures.
Looking ahead, forecasts for 2024 are not optimistic, suggesting an even more significant downturn than in 2023. As a result, manufacturers are grappling with ongoing low sales volumes and are being forced to adjust production levels and implement budget cuts.
Volkswagen: A Case Study in Crisis
Volkswagen, a major player in the automotive industry, is a prime example of the turmoil facing manufacturers today. The company is in the process of laying off workers in Germany, dismantling a job security system that has been in place for three decades. Additionally, three out of ten factories in the country are set to close or be sold.
The factories affected include the historic Karmann factory in Osnabrück, the renowned “glass factory” in Dresden, and the Emden plant. While the Emden site may continue to operate as a subcontractor, the other two sites could face permanent closure or sale. Volkswagen cites high energy costs as a primary factor, with operating expenses in Germany being significantly higher than those in other European countries, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the cessation of affordable Russian gas imports.
In an effort to save around 4 billion euros, Volkswagen initiated a broad cost-cutting program aimed at enhancing profitability. However, the company recently admitted that it may fail to meet its financial targets, prompting discussions about potential layoffs and factory closures—a move complicated by strong employee representation and regional government involvement as a shareholder.
Volkswagen’s operational issues are compounded by its production capacity. The company may be overstaffed, operating two to three factories that together produce approximately 500,000 vehicles annually. With registrations in China—one of its most important markets—declining and European demand dwindling, the company faces underutilization of its facilities and rising management costs.
Volkswagen currently has two primary options: reduce production or temporarily shut down factories, or continue production at a loss, further diminishing profit margins and resale values. With 200,000 global employees, including 120,000 in Germany, Volkswagen’s efficiency is lagging alarmingly; the company produced 2.52 million vehicles in 2022, while its competitor Toyota produced 9.5 million with only double the workforce.
The difficulties extend beyond Volkswagen. The same trends can be observed across other manufacturers in Europe, such as Ford and Nissan, both of which have announced substantial layoffs. Volkswagen’s CEO, Oliver Blume, has stated that the company’s costs are excessively high, with profit margins struggling to exceed 4.1% in 2023—substantially lower than competitors. In the first three quarters of this year, this margin plummeted to just 2%.
China, once a key growth driver for Volkswagen, is now presenting challenges due to its economic slowdown and the rise of local competitors like BYD. The transition to electric vehicles is another hurdle; the rollout of Volkswagen’s ID range has been marred by software issues, resulting in sluggish sales and criticism. To address these setbacks, Volkswagen plans to invest up to 5 billion euros in the American startup Rivian to modernize its software architecture.
Furthermore, the automotive market is contracting amid a challenging economic landscape characterized by rising interest rates, escalating electric vehicle prices, stringent environmental regulations, and a gradual reduction in purchase subsidies. Volkswagen must navigate compliance with CAFE standards, which could impose hefty fines for exceeding emissions limits, putting further strain on the company’s finances.
In summary, the European automotive industry is facing significant headwinds, with Volkswagen exemplifying the challenges manufacturers must navigate to survive and thrive in an evolving market.
The Future of Stellantis: A Looming Crisis?
While Stellantis has so far managed to avoid the worst of the turmoil, emerging issues suggest that challenges may soon arise. CEO Carlos Tavares has stepped down, possibly due to differences with the Stellantis board regarding the company’s recent performance and the struggles facing some of its 14 brands.
Currently, Stellantis has no factory closures planned in Europe, except for one in Luton, UK, and its French facilities are expected to remain active for at least the next three years. However, the company has not been immune to setbacks, reporting a 50% drop in net profit and a 14% year-on-year revenue decline in the second half of 2024, alongside decreased operating income. Despite these challenges, Stellantis has managed to maintain an operating margin of 10%, albeit down 4.4 points from previous figures, largely due to cost reductions in components.
In conclusion, while Stellantis appears to be weathering the storm for now, the broader European automotive industry is grappling with significant challenges that could impact all players in the market.