The Barnier government faces instability as the National Rally supports a potential left-wing motion of censure regarding the contentious Social Security budget. Despite ongoing negotiations and some concessions, neither the left nor far-right parties support the draft law. With the possibility of invoking Article 49.3 to bypass a vote, Barnier risks a censure motion that could lead to his administration’s downfall, marking a significant moment in French political history.
The Fragile State of the Barnier Government
The Barnier administration finds itself in a precarious situation following the announcement from the National Rally on Monday. The party has declared its intent to support a potential motion of censure that the left may introduce as early as this afternoon, particularly concerning the contentious Social Security budget which could be passed using Article 49.3 of the Constitution.
The draft law concerning the financing of social security, known as PLFSS, was crafted through negotiations between a group of senators and deputies. This legislation is set to be reviewed starting at 3:00 PM today.
Neither the left nor the far-right is inclined to endorse this draft. If the government opts to invoke Article 49.3 to push it through without a vote, the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, warned that the government would be effectively finished. ‘Unless a miraculous change occurs, such as Michel Barnier revising his proposal by 3:00 PM, which I doubt will happen,’ he added with a hint of sarcasm.
Negotiations and Possible Concessions
Prime Minister Barnier is scheduled to meet with leaders from various allied groups, including LR, Horizons, Modem, and Macronists, at 1:45 PM in Matignon. Meanwhile, RN representatives will convene at 2:00 PM.
After securing the government’s agreement to abandon proposed increases in electricity taxes and to limit state medical aid for undocumented migrants, the RN is now seeking further concessions. Their demands include adjustments to pension increases and reconsideration of reduced reimbursements for certain medications.
Over the weekend, Laurent Saint-Martin, the Minister of Public Accounts, expressed support for the text approved by the joint parliamentary committee and emphasized that reversing these decisions would undermine the integrity of Parliament and democratic processes.
The government spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, reiterated the administration’s openness to dialogue, emphasizing the need for collaboration. She mentioned that the intended reductions in medication reimbursements are not included in the PLFSS, suggesting room for regulatory discussions.
Marine Le Pen criticized the government’s approach, labeling it as ‘extremely closed and sectarian,’ indicating a lack of willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations.
The executive still retains the ability to amend the text until the very last moment before it is put to a vote. The socialist group is preparing to file a preliminary rejection motion against the PLFSS, which, if successful, would force the text back and forth between the Assembly and the Senate. However, it is crucial to note that the government can still apply Article 49.3 at any time, even after the motion is passed.
Last week, Barnier hinted that he would likely resort to Article 49.3. Without a solid majority, he risks facing censure motions that might be evaluated as soon as Wednesday. The combined votes from the left and the RN could be sufficient to unseat him, marking a significant historical moment since the fall of Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962.
This could potentially lead to the Barnier administration becoming the shortest-lived in the Fifth Republic’s history, further deepening the political turmoil initiated by Emmanuel Macron’s dissolution of the National Assembly in June.
However, Barnier still has the option to avoid invoking Article 49.3, allowing the opposition to reject the text and initiate a new legislative process. ‘In reality, Michel Barnier would gain an additional fifteen days, but ultimately, this will lead to a 49.3 situation,’ predicted RN vice-president Sébastien Chenu.
The RN has raised concerns over a complex constitutional scenario that could delay parliamentary discussions, leading the government to legislate by ordinance after 50 days from the text’s submission. There remains a persistent risk of deputies introducing a motion of censure on their own using Article 49.2.
As it stands, while the invocation of Article 49.3 seems probable, all options are still on the table, as noted by a deputy associated with Barnier. Even if he navigates this immediate challenge, December looms large with more potential pitfalls, particularly regarding the less prominent year-end management bill and the ongoing state budget discussions, both of which carry the specter of censure overhead.