Crucial negotiations occurred between the government and the National Rally, focusing on the social security budget ahead of a Monday Assembly vote. Marine Le Pen’s party demands the abandonment of pension de-indexation, threatening censure if their proposals are ignored. The government, lacking a majority, may invoke Article 49.3 to circumvent a vote, risking a potential coalition with the left that could lead to its downfall. Meanwhile, three budget texts are under parliamentary review, raising concerns about a political crisis.
On Sunday, crucial discussions unfolded between the government and the National Rally, marking a pivotal moment ahead of a significant deadline for Michel Barnier’s administration, which may impact the 2025 budget this week.
As the dominant political faction in the National Assembly, Marine Le Pen’s party is pressing for further concessions related to the social security budget, which is set for Assembly approval on Monday, amidst a looming threat of censure.
“Censure is not a foregone conclusion. Mr. Barnier simply needs to be open to negotiations,” stated the RN leader in an interview with Tribune Dimanche. RN deputy Thomas Ménagé also confirmed on France 3 that talks are actively progressing.
“The Prime Minister faces a 100% chance of being censured, but he equally has a 100% chance of avoiding it if he considers the rational proposals we’ve put forth,” he emphasized.
There was no comment from Matignon regarding any last-minute discussions on Sunday.
Is the government prepared to make additional gestures? Public Accounts Minister Laurent Saint-Martin remarked that the text represents a compromise between both senators and deputies, suggesting that censoring it would be tantamount to undermining a democratic agreement.
The ‘Absolute Red Line’
The RN insists that the government has the chance to amend the text right up until Monday afternoon.
RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy articulated that the far-right party has established “an absolute red line”: the government must abandon the partial de-indexation of pensions from inflation. “This is a social contract between contributors and society at large,” he stated during a political discussion on France Inter.
Following the government’s withdrawal of the electricity tax increase, the RN is also demanding a reversal on the non-reimbursement of specific medications, according to the deputy.
As the social security financing bill (PLFSS) awaits Assembly voting, it contains several contentious points that provoke opposition from both the left and far right.
Lacking a majority, the Prime Minister might resort to invoking Article 49.3 of the Constitution, allowing for the text’s approval without a vote. However, this move would risk triggering a censure motion that could be deliberated as soon as Wednesday.
If the left and National Rally join forces, it could lead to the government’s downfall, marking a historic moment since the disbandment of Georges Pompidou’s government in 1962.
In a letter to Michel Barnier on Sunday, the Socialist Party expressed their frustration at being disregarded concerning their budget proposals.
“You leave us no option but to vote for the censure of your government if you invoke 49.3,” wrote PS First Secretary Olivier Faure alongside parliamentary group leaders Patrick Kanner and Boris Vallaud.
“Marine Le Pen is consistently demonstrating to Michel Barnier who holds the reins. The macronists are heading toward defeat and dishonor,” remarked Marine Tondelier, head of the Ecologists, on LCI.
Should Michel Barnier opt against using 49.3 and the text faces rejection, it would necessitate a new parliamentary review process.
The RN has preemptively criticized a complex constitutional scenario that could impede parliamentary debates, leading to government legislation by ordinance, a path available 50 days post the text’s submission.
Three Budget Texts in Play
Meanwhile, Michel Barnier’s fragile coalition is sounding alarms about the ramifications of a governmental collapse, especially regarding potential increases in debt interest rates. Economy Minister Antoine Armand urged “everyone to take responsibility” to avert a dual political and financial crisis.
A cornerstone of ‘barnierism’, led by a right-centrist coalition supporting the government, the Senate is scheduled to vote on Sunday concerning the entire ‘revenue’ segment of the state budget, a vote anticipated to be straightforward.
Currently, Parliament is reviewing a trio of budget texts: the state budget for 2025, the social security budget, and the bill for the management of the current year’s conclusion. Each of these carries the risk of censure.