Paris Stock Exchange is poised for a slight rebound, with the CAC 40 index expected to rise to 7197.5 points. Despite a modest recovery on Thursday, concerns over weak domestic demand and geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on the market. Investors await eurozone inflation figures, which may influence the European Central Bank’s rate decisions. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s ‘Black Friday’ session could see low trading volumes, with traders maintaining cautious expectations for retail performance this holiday season.
Paris Stock Exchange Anticipates Modest Rebound
The Paris Stock Exchange is set to continue its gentle upward trend on Friday, with a tranquil market expected due to Wall Street’s shortened session for the Thanksgiving holiday. As of 8:15 AM, the December futures contract for the CAC 40 index indicates a rise to 7197.5 points, marking an increase of approximately 44 points, suggesting a favorable opening ahead.
Market Insights and Economic Outlook
With American investors absent, the Paris market managed to initiate a slight recovery on Thursday, closing with a 0.5% gain at 7179 points. However, the overall underperformance of the Paris market, along with other European exchanges, remains evident amid ongoing political, economic, and geopolitical uncertainties impacting the continent.
Currently, the CAC 40 has seen a decline of about 1% for the week, while the Euro STOXX 50 has remained nearly unchanged. Investors are hopeful for some reassurance later in the morning with the release of inflation figures from the eurozone, which could clarify potential support measures the European Central Bank (ECB) might consider to stimulate growth.
Thomas Giudici, a manager at Salamandre (Auris Gestion), notes, “The zone is clearly penalized by weak domestic demand, and the fear of new tariffs in the United States undermines business leaders’ confidence, especially as they cannot rely on a rebound from China.” He also emphasizes that the ECB needs to hasten its rate cuts despite the ongoing strong wage growth.
Predictions for underlying inflation in the eurozone for November are set at 2.8%, slightly up from 2.7% in October, due to a less favorable base effect. Preliminary figures released yesterday from Germany and Spain indicate a renewed acceleration in price dynamics, particularly in the services sector. However, economists believe these statistics do not dismiss the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the ECB next month.
Wall Street, which was closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, will reopen today for a half-session dubbed ‘Black Friday,’ primarily focusing on retail stocks. This day marks the beginning of the crucial end-of-year shopping season, where consumers typically flock to stores and online platforms for attractive deals. Generally, this day is favorable for the consumer sector.
Yet, a trader warns, “One should not expect fireworks this year.” He highlights the recent disappointing stock performances from retailers like Macy’s, indicating that the market harbors low expectations for the holiday season. Currently, futures contracts for major New York indices are up between 0.2% and 0.4%, signaling a slightly positive opening on Wall Street this afternoon. However, trading volumes are anticipated to be low, as many investors opt to take a break during this quieter period in the markets.