Germany’s labor market will increasingly depend on immigration to maintain its economy, requiring around 288,000 international workers annually until 2040. A study by the Bertelsmann Foundation warns of a potential workforce decline due to demographic shifts, with projections showing a drop from 46.4 million to as low as 35 million workers by 2060. The Skilled Workers Immigration Act aims to attract talent, but regional disparities in workforce needs will influence immigration requirements across different states.
The Importance of Immigration for Germany’s Labor Market
A recent analysis highlights that Germany’s continued prosperity hinges on immigration. Without it, the labor market faces a dire threat of collapse. In the upcoming years, the country will need approximately 288,000 workers from various regions worldwide annually to sustain its economy.
This comprehensive study, commissioned by the Bertelsmann Foundation, underscores the long-term reliance of the German labor market on international migrants. It emphasizes that to fulfill labor demands and secure economic stability, the influx of workers from third countries is becoming increasingly vital. The analysis predicts that around 288,000 international workers will be necessary each year until 2040 to maintain a healthy labor supply.
Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
The research indicates a concerning trend: without additional migration, the number of available workers is projected to decline significantly, plummeting from the current 46.4 million to 41.9 million by 2040. By 2060, this figure could drop even further, potentially falling to 35 million, marking a staggering decrease of a quarter.
Migration expert Susanne Schultz from the Bertelsmann Foundation notes that demographic shifts, including the retirement of the baby boomer generation, will pose significant challenges for the labor market. She stresses the necessity of immigration while also advocating for the development of the domestic labor force, including both residents and existing migrants. However, she cautions that the projected demand for workers by 2040 cannot be met through domestic sources alone.
The recently revised Skilled Workers Immigration Act presents new avenues for prospective workers interested in relocating to Germany. Nevertheless, it is essential to foster a welcoming environment across authorities, businesses, and communities, as well as provide long-term residency prospects for these workers.
The Bertelsmann Foundation, established in 1977 by entrepreneur Reinhard Mohn, plays a crucial role in conducting in-depth research and analysis. The foundation is committed to political neutrality and focuses on self-initiated projects that serve the public good.
Regional disparities will also play a significant role in immigration needs, as various states may experience differing impacts by 2040. The study reveals that regions like Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt, and Saarland could see workforce declines exceeding ten percent. In contrast, areas such as Hamburg, Berlin, and Brandenburg may face less severe reductions, with figures below ten percent.
The necessary level of immigration varies by federal state, influenced by their projected workforce requirements until 2040. Regions experiencing a structural increase in workforce demand will require more international talent, particularly in states like Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, Berlin, and Hamburg.
Conducted by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and Coburg University, this study relies on labor demand projections from the IAB and the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training to inform its findings.