Following the recent election, financial markets experienced a rapid uptick, driven by an expected political landscape under the new administration. Key indices such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose significantly, while sectors like oil and gas thrived amidst anticipated deregulation. Conversely, clean energy and healthcare stocks faced declines due to policy shifts. Notable increases in defense and detention sector stocks reflected expectations of stringent policies, while cryptocurrency and Tesla shares also saw gains, indicating a favorable market outlook.
Market Reactions Following the Election
As the election results rolled in during the night of November 5 to 6, financial markets responded swiftly, climbing even before the official opening. This surge isn’t solely due to the Republican candidate’s election; rather, it stems from a familiar political landscape that investors can anticipate. Uncertainty often poses a significant challenge for investors, making predictability a welcome relief. The trio of indices—S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100—witnessed impressive increases of +2.53%, +3.57%, and +2.74%, respectively, the day after the election. Additionally, the Russell 2000 index, a key indicator of small-cap U.S. stocks, soared by 5.84%, fueled further by the Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point rate reduction just two days post-election.
Sector-Specific Impacts of Trump’s Election
The implications of Trump’s election extend significantly into various sectors, shedding light on his forthcoming political agenda. The administration’s focus on deregulation and tax reductions aims to facilitate the greater exploitation of American resources, particularly fossil fuels, while green energy initiatives, which often rely on government support, are likely to take a backseat. Consequently, the S&P Global Clean Energy index saw a decline of 6.08%, whereas the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry rose by 5.30%.
Furthermore, the anticipated deregulation within the banking sector has inspired optimism reminiscent of the post-2016 election period when bank stocks surged by 20%. Investors are looking forward to relaxed regulations that could enhance merger opportunities, especially with expected leadership shifts in key federal regulatory bodies like the SEC and FDIC. This optimism is reflected in the substantial post-election gains of major banking stocks: Citigroup (+8.42%), Goldman Sachs (+13.10%), Bank of America (+8.43%), JPMorgan Chase (+11.54%), and Morgan Stanley (+11.61%), contributing to a 10.68% increase in the S&P 500 Banks Index.
In contrast, Trump’s isolationist stance is set to influence the defense industry significantly. Plans to reduce arms distribution, particularly to countries like Ukraine and Israel, come alongside expectations of increased military spending, potentially boosting government contracts. With rising tensions with China, investments in cybersecurity and advanced military technology are likely to escalate. The S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry experienced a growth of 3.84% following the elections, with notable performances from Curtiss-Wright (+4.74%) and Heico (+3.31%).
Lastly, the healthcare sector braces itself for significant reforms under the Trump administration, including a potential overhaul of Medicaid and an uncertain future for the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies. These anticipated changes could negatively impact companies linked to government programs, such as Molina Healthcare (-2.16%) and Centene (-3.46%). However, this pivot towards privatization might enhance demand for private health insurance, benefiting companies like UnitedHealth Group (+5.23%), Humana (+10.71%), and Alignment Healthcare (+6.55%). Reforms targeting federal health agencies, like the NIH, might also lead to challenges for pharmaceutical giants Pfizer (-2.25%) and Moderna (-2.78%) amid ongoing legal issues.
Stock prices in the detention and deportation sector soared dramatically, with GEO Group and CoreCivic experiencing increases of 42% and 29%, respectively, after the election, followed by further gains of 13.63% and 25.60%. These trends indicate investor expectations of a stringent detention and deportation policy under the new administration.
In the realm of media, Trump Media, the president’s social network, saw its stock rise by 5.94% post-election before falling by 22.96% the following day. Meanwhile, Tesla shares climbed by 14.75% under Elon Musk’s guidance, reflecting a positive market sentiment. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts also celebrated, with Bitcoin jumping by 8.86% after the Republican candidate’s victory, suggesting a potentially more favorable regulatory environment for digital currencies moving forward.