Iranian leader Ali Khamenei’s response to Israel’s military strike on Iranian targets is cautious, urging against overreacting while keeping options open. Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei threatens retaliation, potentially through missile strikes or intensifying allied operations. The Israeli attack highlighted weaknesses in Iran’s defenses, yet Tehran faces a dilemma: retaliate and risk escalation or admit vulnerability. Meanwhile, public sentiment is divided amid economic struggles and repression, as the regime grapples with dissent and the need to assert strength against Israel.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, typically takes time before addressing significant events. Over 24 hours post the Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets, he stated the situation needs to be viewed with balance, neither exaggerating nor trivializing it. His vague response suggests he’s consulting advisors before making any definitive moves, allowing him to keep various responses on the table while buying time.
In contrast, Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, responded more assertively. He declared that Tehran would utilize “all available means” to counter the Israeli attack, though specifics were not provided. It’s clear that the Islamic Republic has several avenues to respond to the October 26 shelling across different regions in the country.
Guido Steinberg, an Islamic expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, suggested various possible responses from Iran. “They might launch missile strikes on Israel, increase activities of allied forces, particularly in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, or even carry out attacks globally.” While he considers widespread attacks improbable, he acknowledges that Iran may choose to retaliate following the Israeli actions.
Israeli Airstrikes: A Demonstration of Power
Israeli Airstrikes: A Demonstration of Power
The Israeli military operations targeted specific military sites in Iran, steering clear of nuclear and oil infrastructure to avoid triggering a more serious escalation. The ability of Israeli aircraft to operate freely within Iranian airspace for hours revealed significant weaknesses in Iran’s air defense system.
The Iranian media are portraying the Israeli assault as a failure; however, this places Tehran in a challenging situation. They must determine their next steps: retaliate against Israel and risk provoking a more severe response or refrain from striking back, which may demonstrate their vulnerability to both enemies and allies. “Iran has limited strategies at its disposal,” comments Katajun Amirpur from the University of Cologne, noting the possibility of actions like closing the Strait of Hormuz. While this strait is crucial for oil exports, Amirpur doubts such a scenario would occur. Instead, any Iranian counterattack is likely to be executed through allied militias like Hizbullah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.
Public Sentiment: Mixed Feelings
Public Sentiment: Mixed Feelings
The Iranian leadership’s ambiguity is mirrored by the diverse sentiments among the populace. Amirpur notes some Iranians advocating for a strong retaliatory response to avoid appearing weak. Conversely, others suggest that a more severe strike from Israel might inadvertently undermine the ruling clerics. There are also views that a heavy-handed Israeli attack could rally public support for the regime, based on historical patterns.
While Tehran continues to have its supporters, the lack of free expression and press limits reliable assessments of public opinion. Many government opponents continue to protest against the regime despite grave personal risks; however, the true scale of opposition remains uncertain. Decision-making within the regime may not fully consider potential civil unrest, adding complexity to their strategic options.
Significant protests erupted after the tragic death of Jina Mahsa Amini in 2022, illustrating public dissent. Her arrest and mistreatment by the morality police sparked outcry against both the regime’s authoritarianism and its financial support for foreign militias over domestic investments.
Economic Struggles: A Pressing Challenge
Economic Struggles: A Pressing Challenge
Iran’s economy has faced ongoing challenges, with high inflation, corruption, and a dwindling economic landscape causing strain on the population. “Iranian society is grappling with these issues and repression,” explains Rouzbeh Parsi, head of the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs.
Evident repression tactics, such as the execution of German-Iranian Jamshid Sharmahd, underscore the regime’s attempts to instill fear both domestically and abroad. Sharmahd’s case serves as a stark warning to the Iranian diaspora and those with dual citizenship, signaling the potential consequences of opposing the regime.
As the Islamic Republic appears increasingly vulnerable, Tehran’s leadership seems eager to project strength—especially against those unable to defend themselves. The upcoming days will reveal whether Iran will demonstrate resolve in confronting its militarily superior foe, Israel.