Is the War Reaching a Turning Point? The Fragile Ukrainian Front in Donbass

The Ukrainian General Staff reported 142 Russian assaults on Sunday, with claims that all attacks were repelled, despite unofficial reports of Russian advances in small villages. President Zelensky urged Nordic nations for air defense support amidst ongoing Russian airstrikes, including over 1,100 glide bomb attacks. Russia aims to completely conquer the Donetsk region, which was partially annexed in 2022. Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for Western military assistance during his upcoming visit to the Nordic Council in Iceland.

In its recent report, the Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces launched 142 assault attacks on Sunday alone. While it’s confirmed that these efforts were thwarted across all segments of the front, unofficial sources suggest that Russian troops have managed to seize a few small villages in the last few days.

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A Russian military blog reported a perceived breakdown of the Ukrainian defense in southern Donetsk. However, the assertions from both sides remain challenging to verify.

Zelensky’s Appeal for Assistance

Ukraine has been steadfastly resisting a large-scale invasion from Russia for over two and a half years. Following another week of intense airstrikes, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has urgently requested support from Western allies for air defense systems. In just the past week, there were over 1,100 glide bomb strikes and more than 560 drone attacks, according to his updates on the X platform. Additionally, Russian forces launched approximately 20 rockets and cruise missiles. On Monday night, swarms of Russian combat drones once again posed a threat to Ukraine, as reported by the Ukrainian air force.

The Ukrainian front line in the coal-dominated industries of the Donbass region has withstood the invasion since 2022. However, significant territorial losses occurred that year, including the cities of Avdiivka and Vuhledar near Donetsk. Since then, even though the Russians have faced substantial casualties, the fatigued Ukrainian forces have struggled to impede their advance. Currently, Kurakhivka, Kurakhove, and Pokrovsk, further to the north, are seen as particularly vulnerable.

Kremlin’s War Objectives

The Kremlin has made its intent clear: the complete capture of the Donetsk administrative region is a primary goal. This area was annexed by Russia in 2022, although full control has yet to be established. Should the final industrial cities in Donbass fall, an expansive steppe leading to the Dnipro River would lie open, threatening major Ukrainian cities like Dnipro and Zaporizhia.

On Sunday alone, Ukraine’s air defense reported successfully repelling 80 Russian drone attacks. Despite these successes, Zelenskyi reiterated the urgent need for assistance to safeguard his citizens, sharing further footage of the devastation in Ukraine. The country has been advocating for the use of foreign long-range weaponry against Russian military positions for several months now.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who instigated the aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, once again cautioned the West against providing long-range weaponry capable of targeting Russian territory. He stated that Ukraine would lack the capability to execute such operations without NATO’s support in terms of intelligence and satellite data, suggesting this would be perceived as Western involvement in the conflict. Putin indicated that the Russian Ministry of Defense is preparing various contingency plans in response to this potential scenario, though he did not elaborate further.

Zelensky’s Visit to Iceland

As he prepared to meet with the Nordic Council, Zelensky underscored the significance of support from Northern European countries. “You all understand equally how crucial it is to act decisively,” he conveyed in a video message. “We must create challenges for the aggressor, ensuring Russia cannot threaten global stability.”

Zelensky is scheduled to participate in a Nordic Council meeting in Reykjavik, Iceland, on Tuesday, where he intends to engage with leaders from Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Iceland to discuss enhancing military and diplomatic pressures on Russia.

According to data from Kiel University, countries like Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, alongside the Baltic states, provide more substantial support to Ukraine relative to their economic capabilities compared to Germany. Additionally, these nations appear to have fewer political constraints regarding Moscow than Berlin. For instance, Denmark directly invests in Ukrainian arms manufacturers.

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