the war in the Middle East reshuffles the cards for the undecided among the Jewish and Arab minorities in the United States

In the home stretch of the election, both camps are trying to court the undecided, particularly numerous among the Jewish and Arab minorities. Democrats are particularly concerned because of recent rather unfavorable polls in these communities.

The presidential campaign has entered its final month in the United States, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris still neck and neck in the polls in the “swing states”. Both camps are trying to predict how the undecided people, who are still very numerous, will vote, especially in communities which usually lean more towards the Democratic party. American Arabs and Jews are particularly courted, against a backdrop of war in the Middle East which blurs the lines.

The alert came from the latest polls: among Arab Americans, the voting promises are balanced, between Trump and Harris, while this electorate has always largely voted Democratic. The war in the Middle East for a year clearly has something to do with it, according to Layan, an activist with the People’s Forum, a popular education organization with a left-wing influence. “Most mosques in the Islamic society have said that they are not going to vote for Democrats, but for someone else who has a position against the war in Palestine, she says. So it’s going to cost the Democrats a lot.” It is not for nothing that Kamala Harris made a point last week of meeting, in Michigan, with leaders of the large Arab-Muslim community of this key state.

In neighboring Pennsylvania, it is the Jewish community which represents tens of thousands of potentially undecided votes. She too was shaken by October 7, 2023 and everything that followed. She noted a rise in anti-Semitic acts, particularly in Pittsburgh. This is where Delphine Amarilio, French-American, lives. She is going to vote for Kamala Harris, but this election makes her doubt more than the previous ones. “I share all his ideas on a social level, abortion, firearms… I am a Democrat, we have the same ideas”, she assures.

“The fact that she expressed reservations about supporting Israel during her presidency makes me want her to be elected, but I’m not 100%.”

Delphine Amarilio, French-American

at franceinfo

Donald Trump’s campaign clearly sensed these doubts. The ex-president is doing everything to present himself as Israel’s best ally, particularly among Orthodox and conservative Jewish voters. But Chip Mayers remains loyal to the Democratic Party. “Trump only rides for himself, he assures. He can show his support for Israel if he thinks it will get him votes, but I really don’t think he’s a steadfast ally of Israel.”

And then, as Chip and his wife Dana say, just because you are a Jewish American voter does not mean you vote only based on whether candidates support the State of Israel. “I don’t think many of our people are going to vote for Trump. But if they don’t vote, then it will be like they are voting for Trump.” Abstention is undoubtedly the real risk for Kamala Harris in a state like Pennsylvania, where the election should be decided by a few thousand votes.