(Ottawa) According to former ambassador to Washington Raymond Chrétien, “the American president does not wake up every morning thinking about Canada.” But the situation is not quite the same in the opposite direction. The proof? These days, Justin Trudeau and his inner circle are already preparing for the aftermath of the presidential election.
The evening of November 5 will be closely followed in government offices in Ottawa. Once the winner is confirmed, the usual congratulations will be quickly published (two versions will have been prepared), then a telephone appointment will be quickly arranged.
The Canadian government will then move up a gear: the Prime Minister’s office and that of Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, will scrutinize the declarations of the elected person, informs us a highly placed government source who requested anonymity to express yourself more freely.
We will tame the winner remotely. Because between now and the inauguration ceremony, scheduled for January 20, 2025, the Biden administration will continue to hold the reins. The Trudeau government’s experience with the two most recent administrations represents an advantage, underlines another government source familiar with Canadian-American issues. Another is the work done by “Team Canada,” a special group formed to defend the country’s interests ahead of the U.S. election.
The Americans must prove to them that Canada has something to offer them. In my opinion, Team Canada should become an almost permanent tool in this relationship.
Raymond Chrétien, former Canadian ambassador to Washington
“We must be able to have continuous diplomacy which ensures that the United States, the legislators, will know where Canada stands on different issues,” says Catherine Loubier, former general delegate of Quebec in New York. and advisor for Quebec to former Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
Trade, border and defense
The economy is undoubtedly the main issue in this bilateral relationship, believes Catherine Loubier.
American protectionism, which Donald Trump promises to boost even further by imposing a universal tariff of 10% on all American imports, could rot the bond between the neighbors. But ultimately, “there will always be irritating commercial elements: the softwood lumber issue is not resolved,” illustrates Raymond Chrétien.
The former diplomat sees, in his crystal ball, other bones of contention between Ottawa and Washington. The border, first. No matter who occupies the Oval Office, Canada will be under scrutiny, he predicts. “The Americans are saying: “We are not going to allow what happens on the northern border to happen on the southern border.” »
The lights are also red – and have been for some time – on the NORAD and NATO dashboard, concerning the defense of Canada and its army.
Even if Kamala Harris wins, the pressure on Canada will continue. It began to exist when I was in Washington, under Bill Clinton.
Raymond Chrétien, former Canadian ambassador to Washington
“I felt it at the time. It was lighter, gentler, friendly, but now it became much more serious. And it will be stronger than ever in the years to come,” adds the nephew of former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, who is today a partner and strategic advisor at the Fasken law firm.
In both cases, the Trudeau government has committed to starting to catch up. We promised to inject 4.9 billion over six years to modernize continental defense, which is threatened by the Chinese and Russians in the Arctic. As for NATO, the Liberals announced that the famous target of 2% would be reached in 2032.
Double unknown
And this is where the other big unknown appears: who will be in charge in Ottawa, and from when? Everything points towards the election of a conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre. Of note, Conservative MP Jamil Jivani was best friends with Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance during his student years at Yale University1.
“There wasn’t a lot of chemistry between Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau,” recalls former Minister of Foreign Affairs Lloyd Axworthy. We only have to think of the famous G7 Summit in Charlevoix, in 2018, which the former American president derailed by leaving it prematurely, by denying the final communiqué, then by accusing Justin Trudeau of “weak » and “dishonest” for having described the tariffs imposed by Washington on steel and aluminum as “insulting”.
What approach would Pierre Poilievre take if elected? We don’t know, replies Lloyd Axworthy. Because the Conservative leader has not often discussed the Canadian-American relationship. “All we know is that he is inspired by Trump’s rhetoric,” he points out.
Canada holds the rotating presidency of the Group of Seven in 2025. The summit will take place in Kananaskis, Alberta. This is where the G8 summit, of which Russia was a member, was held in 2002. At the time, the Canadian Jean Chrétien received the American George W. Bush there.
We will have to see who receives who, next June.
1. Read a text by MP Jamil Jivani on JD Vance on the website National Post (in English)
The telephone game
The minutes following the announcement of the results of the American presidential election will not be easy. In the Canadian government, we know who to contact if Kamala Harris wins: her campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon – she is a close friend of Katie Telford, chief of staff to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, explains a government source having requested anonymity to express themselves more freely. In the event of Donald Trump’s victory, it is a little less clear, because his entourage has changed a lot. But according to the same source, we could well take advantage of the contacts of Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs. The latter organized the phone call between Justin Trudeau and the former American president, after the assassination attempt on him. She called on Senator Lindsey Graham, with whom she has a professional connection.
While this may all seem simple, it is not necessarily the case. In 2016, when the liberals had put all their eggs in Hillary Clinton’s basket, it took a diplomat to come to their aid to establish the channel of communication. The Consul General of Canada in Atlanta, Louise Blais, provided Donald Trump’s telephone number, having one day written down the coordinates sought on a paper napkin, the main interested party told the magazine News.