(Washington) Inflation, a major subject of the presidential campaign, continued to slow down in September in the United States, although a little less than expected, returning to 2.4% over one year compared to 2.5% in August. according to the CPI index released Thursday by the Department of Labor.
Over one month, prices increased by 0.2%, remaining at the same pace as the previous two months, again slightly above expectations.
Over one year, analysts expected a 2.3% increase in consumer prices, according to the consensus published by MarketWatch, which also forecast inflation of only 0.1% over one month.
The question of inflation is a major subject of this American presidential campaign, less than a month before the vote scheduled for November 5, with a persistent gap in particular between economic data, indicating that the national economy is in good health , and the feelings of many voters, faced with a sharp rise in prices over the last three years.
“We continue to make progress, with inflation returning to its pre-pandemic level,” said US President Joe Biden’s economic advisor, Lael Brainard, quoted in a press release.
Inflation had reached a peak of 9.1% year-on-year in June 2022, driven by the economic recovery after COVID-19 and the invasion in Ukraine, and not seen since the early 1980s.
“If you look at the economic situation in recent months, it is quite good and good news for the outgoing government,” said Michael Pierce, deputy chief economist for Oxford Economics, interviewed by AFP.
“But if you look at the last three or four years, what you see is a lot of pressure on real incomes, which have seen a low growth rate. So the real question is what voters will focus on,” he added.
So-called core inflation, which does not take into account the prices of food and energy, considered to be more variable, reached 0.3% over one month, the same as in August. , and 3.3% over one year, slightly more than that observed a month earlier (3.2%).
Energy prices, on the other hand, continued to fall sharply, by 1.9% over one month, with even a 4.1% drop in prices at the pump.
Housing and food on the rise
On the other hand, home food prices increased by 0.4% over one month, after six months of almost total stability.
As for housing, another important item which has seen a marked increase over the last three years, prices are slowing down, with an increase of only 0.2% over one month.
The Department of Labor points out that housing and food constitute 75% of the price increase observed in September.
“If you take housing out of the equation, inflation has been around 2% for the whole year, so it’s good news to see housing prices slowing down,” Mr Pierce insisted. .
These new data are the last published before the presidential elections, but also before the next meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The latter instead relies on variations in the PCE index to determine its monetary policy. This indicator will be released later this month.
In August, the increase in the PCE index had fallen to 2.2% year-on-year, coming very close to the medium-term target of 2% provided for by the Fed’s mandate.
“It should be even more moderate for September,” anticipated Michael Pierce, “it even seems reasonable to me to see the PCE index very close to 2%, the real surprise could come from a rise in underlying inflation “.
The Fed remains cautious in the evolution of its monetary policy, regularly emphasizing that it remains primarily based on the evolution of macroeconomic data.
Markets generally expect a 25 basis point cut at its next meeting, scheduled for November 6-7, then another of the same magnitude at the last meeting of the year, in mid-December, according to the CME monitoring tool, FedWatch.