Free washer | Montreal must avoid doing like Toronto

The Toronto Maple Leafs may already be at a crossroads this season, ten years after beginning their rebuild. New captain Auston Matthews is under contract for another four years, but John Tavares and Mitchell Marner, two members of their core team, will be eligible for full autonomy in July 2025.

The Canadiens’ opponents for the opening game Wednesday night at the Bell Center have obviously not failed in their reconstruction, with eight consecutive appearances in the playoffs, and seasons of 100 points or more in five of the last six seasons (in adjusting performance during the COVID season in 2020-2021). But they have won just one playoff round during this period and the pressure is still high on the management and the team going into this new season.

We implore patience from the Canadian’s supporters. If they have just one victorious elimination round under their belt on October 9, 2032, the nerves of their supporters will already be on edge for several years. Let’s see the Toronto pitfalls to avoid for the Montreal organization. But first, some context.

The Leafs’ rebuild began in 2015-16, a year after the arrival of president Brendan Shanahan. Mitch Marner was drafted fourth overall after a miserable season, and the team’s two disappointing stars, Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf, were traded during that period. A year later, Toronto got their hands on Auston Matthews with the first pick. With Matthews, Marner and William Nylander, drafted eighth overall a year earlier, in 2014, the Maple Leafs had a trio of top prospects to build around.

The Canadian’s new administration started with an undeniable advantage over the Maple Leafs when drafting Juraj Slafkovsky first overall in 2022, followed by David Reinbacher fifth overall in 2023 and Ivan Demidov fifth overall in the summer. He already had young Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Kaiden Guhle and Alexander Romanov in his bank. That of the Leafs was empty, with the exception of defenseman Morgan Rielly, fifth pick in 2012. On the other hand, Slafkovsky and Reinbacher are not Matthews and Marner. Let’s wait for Demidov.

1. Continue to draft well

After Nylander, Marner and Matthews, the Maple Leafs arguably opted for their organizational needs by drafting defensemen in the first round, Timothy Liljegren at 17^e rank in 2017 and Rasmus Sandin at 29^e rank in 2018. Liljegren is not a bad choice. But at 24 years old, he still doesn’t have a big impact in Toronto. Josh Norris, Robert Thomas, Jason Robertson, among others, were always available.

Rasmus Sandin, under the circumstances, was an okay choice, although he never lived up to expectations in Toronto due to his defensive deficiencies. The Leafs picked up a late first-round pick from the Capitals for him a few years later. None of the six players drafted after Liljegren in 2017 have played a single game in the NHL. There was a good one in 2018, in the second round, but he was traded too early. We’re getting there…

2. Patience

In October 2017, in the third year of its reconstruction, Toronto offered 18.75 million for three years to Patrick Marleau, or 6.25 million annually. Marleau was however on the eve of his 38th birthday and had averaged 46 points during the previous three seasons in San Jose. It was necessary to offer a first-round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes two years later to part with it in order to comply with the salary cap. At 13^e rank, the Hurricanes drafted Seth Jarvis in 2020 with this pick. Jarvis had 67 points last year at just 22 years old. Kaiden Guhle, Dawson Mercer and Braden Schneider were still available at this rank. Imagine Toronto with Guhle…

Then, in year four of the rebuild, after two straight playoff appearances but two first-round losses, the Leafs traded their first-round pick and promising defensive prospect, Sean Durzi (drafted in the second round in 2018) , to obtain veteran defenseman Jake Muzzin at the trade deadline in 2019. He had good size, at 6 feet 3 inches and 227 pounds, had experienced a few seasons of around forty points in Los Angeles and had barely turned 30.

This is a crucial step in the reconstruction. You continue to amass assets for long-term growth or you accelerate the process, but don’t be fooled. Muzzin was subsequently injured repeatedly. There were very few high hopes available as of the 22nd^e rank in 2019, we had to find them. Connor McMichael, Shane Pinto and Nils Hoglander would not have helped the Leafs in the short term. But Durzi has become a solid defender.

A few months later, Toronto signed John Tavares for seven years and 77 million. Tavares obviously represents a quality player. But his arrival, and especially the value of his contract, would cause internal salary inflation (Matthews and Marner were not going to sign at a discount) and tie the hands of management in terms of salary.

Kent Hughes was more cautious. He added Patrik Laine to his roster when his value was at its lowest, but Laine is under contract for only two years, not seven, and for $3 million less per year. First-round picks were traded for players 21 or younger, Kirby Dach and Alex Newhook.

3. Too many attackers, not enough defenders

Point number 3 results from the results of points 1 and 2. Liljegren and Sandin have not developed as hoped. The swelling payroll also prevented the Leafs from improving their defense and thus better supporting Morgan Rielly. TJ Brodie and Mark Giordano were temporary solutions at best.

In this regard, the Canadian has an advantage. There is no Morgan Rielly in the organization yet, although Mike Matheson had 62 points last year. On the other hand, he risks leaving the team before the expiration of his contract in July 2026 while Rielly was there during the reconstruction and the following years.

On the other hand, Toronto has never had Kaiden Guhle in its lineup, that is to say a young, robust and mobile 21-year-old defender capable of facing the best opposing lines. Lane Hutson shows great promise and could become that top offensive defender. Let’s see if David Reinbacher and Logan Mailloux develop better than Sandin and Liljegren, but Reinbacher is significantly higher rated, having been drafted fifth overall.

4. Good goalkeepers

Giving up a late first round pick in 2016 (at 30^e rank) and second round in 2017 (50^e in total) to get goalie Frederik Andersen was a good decision. Andersen gave the Leafs a lot of stability between 2016 and 2020. But we were never able to find a successor starting in 2021. Jack Campbell, Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray all failed in the task. They may have finally found the right one, 26-year-old Joseph Woll.

Samuel Montembeault offers good stability to the Canadian in front of the net. Jacob Fowler and Jakub Dobes hope to become goalies of the future. To be continued.

5. A little luck

The Maple Leafs had to face powerful clubs in the first round from 2016 to 2019, Washington and Boston twice. Both series against the Bruins reached seven games. The early eliminations against Columbus and Montreal hurt. They lost in seven games to the Lightning in 2022 and found the Bruins last spring. So far, and so close at the same time…

33 million reasons to stay in Ottawa

The Ottawa Senators were tired of unsuccessfully courting goalies. They just offered a four-year contract extension to Linus Ullmark at a salary of 8.25 million per season, a total sum of 33 million. That’s still a lot of money and years for a goalie who will be 32 when this contract kicks in next year and who has never played more than 41 games in a season once in his career. But since Ullmark had just cost a first round pick and we were tired of beating the crap out of it…