After Helenearound the hurricane Milton to threaten the southern United States. A storm that bears the signature of global warming, experts say.
The hurricane Milton Is it as worrying as people say?
The particularity of Miltonis that it went from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in less than 48 hours. “In terms of intensity, it is part of the top 5 recorded in the Atlantic basin, specifies Frédéric Fabry, professor of oceanic and atmospheric sciences at McGill University. Essentially, there were conditions that were ideal for the tropical storm to intensify extremely quickly. It will lose some of its intensity before hitting Florida, but it will remain a fairly strong hurricane. » Experts expect Milton becoming a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale as it reached Florida.
Hurricane season seems particularly intense this year. Is this really the case?
Last May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an “extraordinary” hurricane season in 2024, with the possible arrival of four to seven Category 3 or higher storms, on a scale of 5. Hurricane season spread of 1er June to November 30. Three main factors influence the intensity of hurricanes this year, recalled the American agency: abnormally high temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the arrival of the La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, as well as a reduction in winds in the ‘Atlantic. “It’s an above-average season with several particularly strong storms. For the number of hurricanes, we are still far from the record of recent years,” mentions Frédéric Fabry.
How do such powerful hurricanes form?
The formation of hurricanes relies on two essential elements, explains Professor Fabry. “The water must first be very hot, generally more than 26 degrees [Celsius]. Right now in the Gulf of Mexico the water is 30-31 degrees [Celsius]which is exceptional. Water evaporates much more easily. It will feed the storms, which will feed the forming hurricane. The second important thing is that the winds are low, so that the heat […] stay focused. »
Milton will it cause as much damage as the hurricane Helene ?
It is difficult to predict all the damage that will be caused by a hurricane, but Milton is not Helenespecifies Frédéric Fabry, it’s a different hurricane. “ Helene had something special. It did its damage much further inland with a lot of rain, reports the climate specialist. In the case of Miltonit should be a less exceptional hurricane from the point of view of rain, but we expect significant damage on the coast, especially with the possibility of significant rise in water levels. »
Milton is it a consequence of climate change?
It is difficult to establish a precise link between global warming and a particular hurricane. But everything suggests that Miltonas Helene two weeks ago, bears the signature of climate change. “We are witnessing a truly extraordinary, regionally very deadly and destructive period of extreme weather events in the United States,” American climatologist Daniel Swain said on the X Network on Monday. Quite frankly, the imprints of climate change are everywhere in what has happened in recent weeks, and what could still happen in the days to come. »
“Until a few years ago, we had never seen hurricanes go from nothing to category 5 in 24 hours,” confirms Frédéric Fabry. This is a recent phenomenon, which is attributable to the fact that these hurricanes are now forming in much warmer waters than before. It’s only a few degrees warmer, but for hurricanes, it makes a huge difference. And this warmer water bears the signature of climate change. » There are not necessarily more hurricanes due to climate change, but they are more intense, adds the professor.
Can man create hurricanes, as some American politicians have suggested?
Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said last week on X that you can control the weather. She was referring to the hurricane Helenewhich hit states that were generally more Republican-friendly hard. This statement makes Frédéric Fabry smile. “The energies associated with hurricanes are enormous. If we were able to create that much energy, it would show. The heat of a hurricane is equivalent to a 10 megaton bomb exploding every 20 minutes. These are huge quantities. That’s why we can’t create hurricanes. »