The exit from fossil fuels is a “fantasy” for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which predicts that demand for black gold will continue to grow at least until 2050, a symbolic milestone in the fight against climate change, in a report published Tuesday.
OPEC sees demand growing by 17% between 2023 and 2050, from 102.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 120.1 mb/d at the end of the period.
It also significantly revised upwards its projection for 2045 to 118.9 mb/d compared to 116 mb/d in the previous edition of its report on the outlook for global oil demand, the latest version of which was unveiled on Tuesday.
“These forecasts highlight that the fantasy of a gradual exit from oil and gas is not in line with reality,” underlines the organization led by Saudi Arabia, which is very critical of the pace of the energy transition.
These predictions run counter to the efforts required to limit global warming.
They are also far out of step with forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates a peak in demand for all fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – “in the coming years” of the current decade, thanks to the surge in cleaner energy and electric cars.
IEA President Fatih Birol stressed in a recent interview with AFP that global demand growth is “slowing to less than a million barrels per day this year,” a trend that is expected to continue in 2025. He cited the slowdown in China’s economy and the electrification of transport.
At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, the world agreed to phase out fossil fuels and, by 2030, triple the capacity of renewables, in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, in line with the recommendations of climate experts.
OPEC, for its part, does not see any decline other than that of demand for coal, counting, in addition to oil, on a strong increase in the global appetite for gas, behind however wind and solar combined, which it sees quintupling over the period 2023-2050.
However, the evolution of oil demand is very heterogeneous, with its growth being driven by non-OECD countries, led by India, while it will decline from 2030 in OECD countries (mainly developed countries). India alone would see its demand grow by 8 mb/d over 2023-2050.
Among the main factors supporting this demand for oil and energy in general is the increase in the world population, which is expected to rise from around 8 billion inhabitants today to 9.7 billion by 2050, growth again driven by countries outside the OECD, particularly in Africa and Asia.
Domination of thermal vehicles
From a sector perspective, “the highest incremental demand over the forecast period is expected from the petrochemical, road transport and aviation sectors,” the report said.
Despite a rise in electric cars, OPEC believes that thermal vehicles “should continue to dominate road transport”.
The cartel highlights several “obstacles” to the rise of electric vehicles: electricity grids, battery manufacturing capacity and access to essential minerals.
In general, OPEC welcomes the “important milestone” represented by COP 28, organized by one of its members in Dubai, which marked “the beginning of the end” of fossil fuels.
She nevertheless expects “pressure” from both political decision-makers and populations on “too high” ambitions in terms of the deployment of renewable energies or electric vehicles.
The stance comes a day after Swedish battery giant Northvolt announced 1,600 job cuts, due in part to slowing demand.
To meet this growing demand for crude, OPEC estimates that the cumulative investment required for the sector will be over 17,000 billion US dollars, or some 640 billion dollars per year on average by 2050, mainly in the exploration and production of black gold.