The defeat of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in the riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun at the hands of the Bloc Québécois in Monday’s by-election risks having political consequences beyond Quebec’s borders.
Historically, the Liberal Party of Canada has always been seen as the guardian of national unity, particularly in Ontario and among the Liberal intelligentsia in Toronto. Ontario voters have often had this reflex in mind when it comes to protecting national unity, pushing back against sovereignist advances and ensuring that Quebec remains in the Canadian federation.
The Liberal Party played this trump card extensively during two referendums on Quebec sovereignty, the first in 1980 and the second in 1995, and during the elections that preceded and followed these major consultations on the future of La Belle Province.
After the failure of the Meech Lake Accord, which was intended to allow Quebec to reintegrate the constitutional fold “with honour and enthusiasm” in June 1990, Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative Party gradually collapsed. The Bloc Québécois took root in Quebec. And the Reform Party established itself in Western Canada.
Faced with these two opponents, the Liberal Party played the national unity card to sweep almost all the seats in Ontario. Jean Chrétien was thus able to win three majorities in a row, benefiting from solid support in Ontario, which currently holds more than a third of the 338 seats in the House of Commons.
The Liberal Party, which governed the country for most of the last century and arrogated to itself the title of “Canada’s Natural Governing Party,” was able to pose as the defender of the country’s unity because it also had leaders elected in a Quebec riding. The list is quite long: Wilfrid Laurier, Louis Saint-Laurent, Pierre Trudeau, Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin and Justin Trudeau. In the case of the Conservative Party, in its various incarnations, the list of leaders from Quebec is rather short: Brian Mulroney and Jean Charest.
However, the loss of this Liberal stronghold to a sovereignist party pierces this image that the Liberal Party has carefully projected over the years. In short, this defeat constitutes a “political discount” for Justin Trudeau’s troops that could be useful to the Conservative Party.
Moreover, the Conservative breakthrough in the Greater Toronto Area after winning Toronto–St. Paul’s, another Liberal stronghold, in a by-election this summer could be the prelude to other crucial gains to take power.
Quebec had remained until now the only province where the Liberal Party had managed to essentially maintain its gains. The situation has changed since the by-elections on Monday evening.
This electoral setback comes as the Bloc Québécois is consolidating its lead in Quebec. According to the website 338Canada.com, the sovereignist party is garnering an average of 33% of voting intentions in Quebec, compared to 26% for the Liberal Party, 24% for the Conservative Party and 11% for the NDP. Such a result would give the Bloc Québécois a harvest of 40 seats – eight more than in the last election. The Liberal Party could keep 24 seats, 11 fewer than in 2021, while the Conservative Party would get its hands on 13 seats, three more than in the last election. The NDP would keep the only seat it currently holds.
If it was able to snatch LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, the Bloc Québécois is now talking about the possibility of winning Rosemont, Hochelaga, “perhaps Laval or Outaouais” and elsewhere in Quebec, according to Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet.
Liberal ministers such as Fisheries Minister Diane Lebouthillier in Gaspésie–Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, National Revenue Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau in Compton–Stanstead, Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada in Hochelaga, and Heritage Minister Pascale St-Onge in Brome–Missisquoi could be vulnerable.
Since becoming leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre has sporadically claimed that the Trudeau government’s policies, particularly those affecting the exploitation of natural resources, are fuelling tensions between Ottawa and the provinces and undermining the country’s unity.
PHOTO BLAIR GABLE, REUTERS
Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada
He also denounced certain programs set up by Ottawa in areas of provincial jurisdiction, notably the new national dental care program and the first investments to lay the foundations of a national drug insurance program.
Mr. Poilievre has made himself an apostle of respect for provincial powers, going so far as to commit to ensuring that the federal government refrains from holding an environmental assessment of a natural resource development project if, for example, Quebec proposes to conduct one.
When he goes on the offensive in French, the Conservative leader strives to present the Trudeau government as a “centralizing” and “costly” government.
National unity has not been a key issue on the federal political scene for a few years. The rise of the Parti Québécois in the Quebec polls and the surprising victory of the Bloc Québécois in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun could bring this delicate issue back to the forefront. For a rare time, a Conservative leader could use it to his advantage to win more seats in Ontario.