(Ottawa and Montreal) Candidates in the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun by-election spent the evening trading pole positions in a thrilling race that still had no winner in the early hours of Monday night. The vote count went much more smoothly in the Elmwood–Transcona riding, where the NDP candidate managed to keep the keys to that orange castle.
What you need to know
Voters in two ridings, LaSalle–Émard–Verdun (Montreal) and Elmwood–Transcona (Manitoba) were called to the polls in by-elections.
The spotlight was on LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, a Liberal stronghold where a defeat for Justin Trudeau’s party would be a serious blow.
In Montreal, the counting process is taking longer than expected due to the record number of candidates.
At around 12:50 a.m., Liberal candidate Laura Palestini had a slim lead of 63 votes over Bloc candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé. More than two-thirds of the votes had been counted by then.
The counting of advance ballots was allowed to begin earlier, in order to avoid a repeat of the Toronto–St. Paul’s fiasco, just over three months ago, where the outcome was not known until the early hours of the morning.
However, the results have once again come in dribs and drabs.
Some even started knitting at the Bloc Québécois rally.
The length of the process sent activists from all parties through a range of emotions, as candidates Craig Sauvé, Louis-Philippe Sauvé and Laura Palestini traded positions and podium configurations throughout the evening.
The origin of the ballots counted seems to have contributed greatly to this, as Verdun votes more for the New Democratic Party (NDP), Ville-Émard and Côte-Saint-Paul are more inclined towards the Bloc and LaSalle seems to be a pool of Liberal votes.
“Not a bastion”
The simple fact that a victory in the riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun is not a given is evidence of the precariousness of the situation for the Liberals. The incumbent, David Lametti, won the last three elections decisively with more than 40% of the vote.
There were few in the Liberal ranks on Monday who predicted a victory for candidate Laura Palestini – there were attempts to lower expectations, arguing that the constituency was not “a stronghold” and that the results would be close.
PHOTO DOMINICK GRAVEL, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Laura Palestini tries to keep the riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun liberal
In a rather unusual move, the Liberal MP candidate spoke after only 2% of the ballots had been counted. In a speech delivered in French, English and Italian, she suggested that the final verdict would have to wait until the early hours of the morning.
“And maybe early tomorrow [mardi] This morning, we will learn what the people of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun want to have […] “Like you, I am eager to find out,” she said in a speech that was not overflowing with enthusiasm.
Shortly before midnight, it was the turn of his NDP opponent, Craig Sauvé, to address the activists. He welcomed “this dream campaign,” which he said demonstrates that “the NDP is competitive in Montreal.”
PHOTO JOSIE DESMARAIS, THE PRESS
Craig Sauvé during his speech
“We hope to wake up tomorrow [mardi] with an NDP MP,” said candidate Sauvé. A win in this riding would allow leader Jagmeet Singh, who has hardly benefited from the pact with the Liberals in opinion polls, to reassert his leadership.
The Bloc hopes to cause a surprise with a victory for Louis-Philippe Sauvé.
A defeat that could be costly
If the Liberals were to lower their flags in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, there would be a political cost to pay, argues Jeremy Ghio, a former Liberal government strategist now a director at the firm Tact Conseil.
“Losing a riding that they’ve won by over 20 points in the past is definitely going to shake up the entire caucus,” he argued. And if they lose, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “could very well be benched by his own caucus,” he said.
A result “before the sun rises”
The delays in announcing the results are due to the record number of candidates on the ballot paper. There are 91 candidates on the ballot paper, the vast majority of whom (77) are activists from the Longest Ballot Paper Committee, a lobby group that campaigns for electoral reform.
PHOTO PROVIDED BY ELECTIONS CANADA
Elections Canada had to change the layout of the ballot to accommodate all the candidates.
In the Toronto–St. Paul’s by-election, where voters had a total of 84 candidates to choose from, the time between the polls closing and the results being announced was about eight hours.
Elections Canada learned from the experience: it hired more election workers, sent staff from headquarters to the riding, and counted advance ballots four hours before polls closed.
PHOTO CHRISTINNE MUSCHI, THE CANADIAN PRESS
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, Bloc candidate in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun
The other by-election
If the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun by-election attracted more attention than the other election being held Monday, it is because the Liberals had something to lose in Montreal. In Manitoba, it was the New Democrats who were at risk of losing a stronghold. It seems that they would have had the upper hand over the Conservatives, who conceded victory shortly after midnight.
Elmwood–Transcona riding [autrefois Winnipeg–Transcona] was represented for nearly thirty years by the late New Democrat Bill Blaikie before passing into the hands of his son Daniel Blaikie, under the same banner.