(Vienna) The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has once again raised its forecasts for the expansion of nuclear production capacity, increasingly seen as a lever for decarbonization, according to a press release published on Monday.
“The global momentum for nuclear energy continues apace,” said the UN body’s Director-General, Rafael Grossi, at the opening of the body’s general conference in Vienna.
Faced with the challenge of climate change, the atom is now “increasingly recognized as a clean and safe source of energy” alongside renewable energies, he said.
The official also mentioned the “growing interest” in small modular reactor (SMR) technology, which aims to develop the combined production of electricity, heat and/or hydrogen, mainly for industrial sites that consume a lot of fossil fuels.
In the most favourable scenario for nuclear energy, the IAEA predicts more than doubling of installed capacity, which would climb to 950 gigawatts in 2050 against 371 gigawatts at the end of 2023 with 413 reactors in operation. It previously counted on 890 gigawatts.
In the least optimistic case, the organization is counting on 514 gigawatts.
“We have 31 countries that are exploiting nuclear energy today, and nearly 30 that are embarking on this path, three of which are at advanced stages of construction and will produce electricity in the coming years” (Turkey, Bangladesh and Egypt), Henri Paillere, director of economic studies at the IAEA, explained to the press.
Nuclear proponents point out that it is a very low CO2-emitting energy source.2 and controllable, that is to say, which can be mobilized according to needs, unlike wind or sun. But because of the cost and risks, countries remain resolutely against or hesitate to take the step.
This energy provides 9.2% of the world’s electricity, according to 2023 figures, far from the dominant coal.
The IAEA raised its projections in 2021 for the first time since the Fukushima disaster in 2011, following a powerful earthquake and a gigantic tsunami in northeastern Japan.
The accident had dealt a severe blow to the sector before it returned to favour in the EU. Nuclear power, which allows it to free itself from Russian gas, is also benefiting from the break with Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.