The slide of countries into authoritarianism, rather than resulting from a bloody military coup, is increasingly the result of a slow institutional transformation from within.
Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University who wrote a landmark book called The death of democracies, notes that such sudden transitions by arms were more frequent during the Cold War era.
“They have not disappeared – we see it for example in Egypt or Thailand – but it is much rarer,” notes the researcher, who partly attributes this change to the fact that governments first formed at the ballot box seem more “legitimate” and “can push further” to transform the regime if they wish without arousing opposition.
The transformation observed in El Salvador under Nayib Bukele, who gradually took control of all institutions without compromising his popularity, is a recent illustration of the phenomenon.
The popular politician, Mr. Levitsky said, has notably been able to take advantage of the insecurity reigning in the country due to the omnipresence of gangs to restrict fundamental freedoms without provoking a backlash.
The law of the “strongest”
In general, insecurity makes populations more sensitive to the discourse of populist politicians, from the right or the left, who promise to restore order.
The difficulties of traditional political parties, which in developing countries often have to respond to years of mismanagement and corruption, facilitate the emergence of alternative candidates who present themselves as defenders of the real interests of the population.
Nayib Bukele, who came from the ranks of the FMLN, one of the main parties that emerged from the civil war, is a “skilled communicator” who has managed to sell himself to the population as a leader without ties to the elite even though he comes from one.
PHOTO FROM HARVARD UNIVERSITY WEBSITE
Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University
A good populist is someone who presents himself as a maverick, independent of the political establishment and who does not hesitate to shake up institutions in order to take action.
Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University
In the case of Nayib Bukele, the process is all the more effective because the image of the strong man acting without asking the opinion of others is central to the Salvadoran psyche, notes Veronica Reyna, a social worker specializing in security issues.
“The gangs also reflect the same culture. It’s the strongest who wins,” she says.
Another reason for Bukele’s popularity is that he has managed to restore a sense of pride among the population, notes Noah Bullock, who heads the human rights organization Cristosal.
“For years, El Salvador had the image of a poor country undermined by violence. Bukele is turning all that upside down,” he notes.
“The world has changed”
The international context also plays in favour of authoritarian leaders like him, notes Mr Levitsky.
PHOTO PAVEL BYRKIN, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES
Chinese and Russian Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin toast at a reception in the Kremlin in March 2023.
“The world has changed and is much more receptive today to authoritarianism,” notes the researcher, referring to the fact that countries like China and Russia are not very careful about respecting human rights. They offer an alternative to the United States when it comes to finding political support or funding.
In Latin America, the US administration did not hesitate during the Cold War to support regimes or armed groups indifferent to civil rights under the pretext of fighting communism.
The United States has always been consistent on this point. The defense of national interests has always taken precedence over democracy. But things changed in the region after the fall of communism.
Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University
From the fall of the Berlin Wall to the Iraq War, the country, like the European Union, has actively promoted democracy as a political system, he says.
PHOTO MATT ROURKE, ASSOCIATED PRESS ARCHIVES
During his presidency, Donald Trump proved that the United States was not immune to the risk of authoritarian drift.
Those efforts then slowed and were significantly reversed, Levitsky notes, under President Donald Trump. “He hasn’t lifted a finger to defend democracy,” the academic notes, who expects further decline in that regard if the Republican candidate is returned to power.
The American state itself is facing the risk of an authoritarian drift, notes the researcher, who had expressed alarm in his work about the impact of the division of the political class on the traditional functioning of democracy in the country.
Implicit values of tolerance and moderation have been gradually abandoned, he worried in the book, published in 2018, a year after Donald Trump took office.
“Today, we have reached another point. We have a former president who tried to circumvent the verdict of the ballot boxes and block the transfer of power. It is the very respect for the Constitution that is at stake,” he warns.