There are about fifty days left until the presidential election on November 5, which is also the start of early voting in several states. Time to talk about an essential element in any election that is even slightly close: who will vote.
This year, there are two factors in particular that could influence the outcome. First, there are Republican voters preparing to vote for Kamala Harris and the Democratic candidates. Most often, this is by claiming that Donald Trump is a danger to democracy itself, citing his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election and his active participation in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
This week it was the turn of Alberto Gonzales, former US Attorney General and legal adviser to President George W. Bush.
“We must have a president who respects the rule of law,” he wrote in an open letter to the website Politico. “I cannot sit back while Donald Trump – arguably the greatest threat to the rule of law in this generation – tries to return to the White House.”
PHOTO JABIN BOTSFORD, THE WASHINGTON POST ARCHIVES
Former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney and her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, in 2022
It certainly cannot be argued that Mr. Gonzales is leading a large movement of renegade Republicans who are going to vote for Kamala Harris. But it is certainly a phenomenon that exists and is growing. A few days ago, former Republican Representative Liz Cheney said, for essentially the same reasons, that she was going to vote for Kamala Harris, as was her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Last month, more than 200 advisers to former Republican White House candidates George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney signed an open letter saying that, despite their differences with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, they cannot bring themselves to vote for Donald Trump, “who lied about a stolen election.”
These people will vote for Mme Harris, but there are plenty of other Republicans who will abstain rather than vote for Donald Trump.
The example comes from above. Former President George W. Bush has made it known that he would not support any of the presidential candidates this year. It must be said that the former president has never agreed to vote for Donald Trump. In 2020, he voted for every position on the ballot except for the presidency. In 2016, he had put the name of his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on the ballot, a procedure called write in and which is permitted by law.
In fact, one could almost say that former President Bush is the honorary leader of what would be the largest party in the United States, that of the abstainers. Because the turnout is a very important factor in any presidential election.
The 2020 election had the highest turnout since the statistic was based on the number of voters on the electoral roll rather than the general population at 66.6%. In the 10 elections that preceded it, the average was about 10% lower.
Generally speaking, when turnout is high, the Democratic candidate has a better chance of winning, while the opposite is true for the Republican candidate.
For several years, states have been trying to increase turnout, by making it easier to vote early or by mail, for example. This is putting Donald Trump’s campaign face to face with its contradictions.
He still believes he was robbed of the last election, in part because of mail-in voting. But this year, groups associated with his campaign, such as Turning Point Action, have spent more than $100 million to reach more voters and encourage them to use mail-in voting.
On Thursday, at a press conference in California, Mr. Trump nevertheless resumed his attacks on postal voting, which he still associates with electoral fraud.
Which makes one thing virtually certain: If Mr. Trump is not ahead by the end of the evening of November 5, he will once again claim that he is the victim of electoral fraud.
Meanwhile, state election officials say the number of voters mailing in ballots will be even higher this year than in 2020. And it’s going to take time. Especially since some states, like Nevada, accept mail-in ballots for four days after the polls close.
Which means, as Al Schmidt, Secretary of State of the key state of Pennsylvania, said, “we’re going to count the votes as quickly as we can, but counting the votes takes time.” Mr. Schmidt, it should be noted, is a Republican elected official.