Where is Omaha? Most Americans have never been there, and many don’t even know this Midwestern city exists. Yet, according to one possible scenario, it could swing the race for the White House.
This would be the case if Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied in the number of electors in the November 5 election, sharing the seven famous key states. For example, if the former emerges victorious in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the latter wins Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.
In this scenario, the second district of the State of Nebraska, which includes Omaha, would prove decisive on the national level.
This is explained by a specific feature of Nebraska: in 48 out of 50 American states, the candidate who comes out on top wins all of the state’s electors. For example, it is almost certain that California, where Kamala Harris was born, will give the Democrat 54 votes in the electoral college. Donald Trump should get her 40 electors in Texas and 30 more in Florida. The first to reach 270 will win the presidential election, which is an indirect vote.
But Nebraska, like Maine, partially allocates its electors by district, not at the state level. And in this fiercely conservative agricultural state, the second district is winnable for Democrats, as Barack Obama did in 2008 and Joe Biden did in 2020. In both years, Nebraska provided four Republican electors and… one Democrat.
Blue + red = purple
The 2nd District has since acquired a nickname: the “Blue Dot,” the color of Democrats, as opposed to red, that of Republicans.
In reality, it’s more of a “purple dot in a sea of red,” with the third color designating a divided electorate, Gregory Petrow, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska, told AFP.
“This district has only had two single-term Democrats in Congress in the last few decades. All the others have been Republicans.” Omaha, he said, has a Republican mayor but a Democratic city council.
The stakes of Omaha are not lost on anyone. In the spring, Republicans tried, in vain, to change the electoral rules to impose the “winner-take-all” system in force in the other 48 states.
In March, Kamala Harris sent her husband Doug Emhoff to Omaha, where the “Second Gentleman” spoke about women’s reproductive rights, a hot-button issue.
Reuben Sandwich
And last month, both of the candidates’ running mates—Kamala Harris’ Tim Walz and Donald Trump’s J.D. Vance—also visited the city that prides itself on inventing the famous Reuben sandwich (corned beef, sauerkraut and Emmental cheese between two slices of bread).
Democrats regret that the city’s richest resident, financier Warren Buffett, has distanced himself from politics. In 2016, the “Oracle of Omaha” supported Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump.
But it is happening at the local level: in recent weeks, many Omaha residents have planted a sign in front of their homes representing a blue circle on a white background, at the initiative of an organization called “Blue Dot Energy”, which has thousands of subscribers on Facebook.
Will Omaha citizens be sensitive to the fact that Tim Walz was born in Nebraska? Will they be more influenced by campaign videos from both sides?
The Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), a Republican political action committee, announced on September 4 that it was increasing its Omaha advertising budget by $1.5 million, from $2.8 million to $4.3 million.
In August alone, Kamala Harris’ campaign spent $700,000 on TV ads in Nebraska, according to the specialist website Adimpact Politics. And Democrats plan to spend an additional $7 million in Omaha.
In the meantime, both candidates continue to focus their efforts on the seven key states. Donald Trump goes to Arizona on Thursday, Kamala Harris to North Carolina.