With Michel Barnier, tax increases are no longer taboo

The 2025 budget is being prepared with a deficit that promises to be larger. In this context, the question of tax increases is now being considered.

The issue of raising taxes was really a red line for previous governments, Bruno Le Maire, the resigning Minister of the Economy, repeated it: no tax increases. But that was before the composition of the new Assembly and the slippage of the accounts.

In this new context, Michel Barnier says he does not want “to prohibit oneself from tax justice”, implying that, in order to straighten out the accounts, it is possible to bring money into the coffers by increasing taxes and levies.

The fact remains that if there is an increase, it will be an extremely targeted increase on the highest incomes. On the other hand, there is no question of re-establishing the ISF, the wealth tax, a real marker for Emmanuel Macron. And the right, Michel Barnier’s political family, has always campaigned for its abolition. One of the options is to take a little more from the last brackets of income tax, by not indexing them to inflation. This amounts to increasing the levy.

But more than individuals, it is companies that are targeted, especially the largest ones. Taxation on the super profits of companies is back in the debate, particularly energy groups that have been able to benefit from the surge in energy costs.

The tax loophole for shipowners, which concerns maritime carriers, is also being closely examined. More generally, the corporate income tax, which Emmanuel Macron had lowered from 33% to 25% between 2018 and 2022, could be increased, at least temporarily.

In terms of financial income, they are clearly in Bercy’s sights, particularly the dividends that companies give to shareholders. It must be said that their payment is reaching records worldwide but also in France. According to a report published by the Janus Henderson firm on Tuesday, September 10, nearly 94% of French groups increased or maintained their dividends in the second quarter, reaching an unprecedented total payment of more than 54 billion euros. A sum nearly 8% higher than the same period in 2023.

In this context, the single flat-rate levy on dividends, known as the flat tax, could therefore be revised.