After a flying start, Kamala Harris faces the challenge of maintaining the momentum

The Democratic candidate, who is slightly ahead in opinion polls, will face Donald Trump in a first televised debate on Tuesday evening.

A first meeting awaited by all of America, at the heart of an undecided presidential campaign. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, in the running for the supreme office, will meet and confront each other for the first time during a televised debate, Tuesday, September 10, on the ABC News channel. An unprecedented and decisive face-off for the Democratic candidate, after the excitement of the first weeks.

The announcement of her candidacy, after Joe Biden withdrew from the race, sparked momentum and renewed hope in the Democratic ranks during the summer. The party convention, held in Chicago from August 19 to 22, was the apotheosis. Kamala Harris nevertheless remains highly anticipated at this debate on Tuesday, after a campaign start without a media appointment. The only exception: her first major interview as a candidate, on August 29 on CNN.

The Vice President “comes at a very delicate moment”, says Ludivine Gilli, director of the North American Observatory at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. “The whole difficulty is to succeed in crossing the threshold, moving from the momentum of novelty and relief, and converting that into a movement of adhesion.”

After the interview with CNN, the debate against Donald Trump should allow Americans to better understand Kamala Harris’ roadmap. The candidate has unveiled several ideas, particularly for the middle class and more disadvantaged Americans, but her ideas have not yet permeated part of the public.

In mid-August, more than a third of voters surveyed were unsure what the candidate stood for, according to a CBS News and YouGov opinion poll. Only 14 percent of Americans surveyed said the same about Donald Trump. “She will have to give a more precise idea of ​​the policies and the concrete programme that she intends to pursue,” confirms Ludivine Gilli.

“What measures she will put forward and how these measures will be perceived… All of this will be decisive in terms of trends.”

Ludivine Gilli, United States specialist

to franceinfo

Detailing her platform should allow the Harris campaign to mobilize the Democratic base, including its left wing. It must also capture the support of undecideds and independents, and even Republican voters who are more moderate than their candidate – a complex balancing act.

In recent weeks, Kamala Harris has insisted on this desire for openness. “There are people with a diversity of opinions watching us tonight. I want you to know: I promise to be a president for all Americans,” she proclaimed at the Democratic convention. A position reaffirmed a week later, on CNN. “I think it would be a good thing for the American public if someone in my administration were a Republican,” she even suggested.

In terms of ideas, the vice president is making numerous appeals to Republicans. “We have laws that must be respected and enforced” in immigration matters, and there must be “consequences” for exiles entering the territory irregularly, she thus hammered. She “will not prohibit” nor hydraulic fracturing, a method of extracting hydrocarbons that is nevertheless criticized by environmentalists for its environmental impact.

“We can grow and develop a thriving clean energy economy without banning fracking. [hydraulique].”

At the risk of contradicting herself? In 2019, Kamala Harris was against this process banned in France, which cracks the rock by injecting a liquid under very high pressure. She also supported decriminalizing irregular border crossings.

Donald Trump does not fail to emphasize these reversals. He accused Kamala Harris of having “copy” its proposal to eliminate taxes on tips, and defines its competitor as “the greatest turncoat in history”. “My values ​​have not changed,” replies the vice-president, adding “that it is important to build consensus.” The candidate and her teams are convinced of this, according to the New Yorker : in this campaign, it is better to be accused of a U-turn than to be perceived as too radical.

Could these shifts cost him votes on the left, among the most progressive Democrats? “She probably has more votes to win on the right than votes to lose on the left,” estimates Ludivine Gilli. The Democratic base is at this stage “mobilized”, But issues like the war in Gaza remain highly divisive. Kamala Harris calls for a ceasefire and agrees that “far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed,” but supports “Israel’s defense and its ability to defend itself.” On the left, voters are shocked by this position and that of Joe Biden “might decide to stay at home” November 5th, warns the researcher. The candidate could also be expected by her camp on police violence and racial inequalities.

On Gaza, as on other campaign issues, Kamala Harris is de facto carrying the record of Joe Biden’s administration. “Her argument (…) is: ‘We will do better when I am in power.’ She has been in power for three and a half years and everything has gotten worse,” recently tackled Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance.

The Vice President wants “charting a new path”but she is also associated with the outgoing Democratic president. “I think it’s a burden,” comments Clifford Young, director of opinion polls for Ipsos in the United States. At the beginning of the month, 55% of Americans surveyed had an unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden, compared to 40% at the start of his term, according to the specialist site FiveThirtyEight. Donald Trump’s unpopularity is slightly lower, at 52.5%.

“There’s this low approval rating, and the fact that [Joe Biden] is seen as responsible for inflation”continues the political pollster. And on this subject, Donald Trump has a head start. Rising prices remain the country’s number one problem for 50% of Americans, according to Ipsos. Voters surveyed have more confidence in the Republican to handle this issue: 44% of them think he is capable of responding well to the problem, compared to 36% for Kamala Harris, according to a recent study by the polling company.

“There is an energy, an enthusiasm [autour de la candidature de Kamala Harris] which put her ahead in the polls. But [Donald] Trump still dominates the fundamentals, meaning he is seen as stronger on the main issue: inflation.”

Clifford Young, director of polling at Ipsos in the United States

to franceinfo

The candidate is far from dodging the issue. In Chicago, she promised to “reduce the cost of daily needs, such as health care, housing and groceries.” On CNN, Kamala Harris defended the Biden presidency’s record, recalling the start of the mandate in the midst of a pandemic and economic crisis. “Today, inflation is below 3%. Many of our policies have enabled America to recover faster than any other rich country,” she hammered.

For Ludivine Gilli, “Joe Biden’s economic record is pretty good,” and the Democrat can defend it in this campaign. “The problem is inflation and the real difficulties of a part of the population. Kamala Harris has the means to highlight this record if she accompanies it with a message: ‘There is still a lot to do and this is what I propose’.”

Another advantage for the Harris camp: her campaign is viewed more favorably than Donald Trump’s. A recent Ipsos study highlights this fact: 56% of respondents describe the Democrat’s campaign as “excellent or good”, compared to 41% for that of the former president. “Kamala Harris’ campaign is more effective, more message-driven,” observes Clifford Young. “Donald Trump doesn’t talk so much about inflation, he uses attacks. In general, fundamental issues are very decisive [dans une élection]but sometimes campaigns are more important.”

Buoyed by positive momentum, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 3.2 percentage points nationally, according to FiveThirtyEight. As a 59-year-old black woman, the candidate hopes to capture new votes on the left, particularly among young people, women and black voters.

It is nevertheless difficult for her to be satisfied with this lead. At the same time, in 2016, Hillary Clinton had more voting intentions, recalls the New York Times. The painful memory of her defeat against Donald Trump remains fresh in the minds of the campaign team. The Democrat had collected two million additional votes, but Donald Trump won thanks to 290 electoral votes, against 232 for Hillary Clinton. “That’s the difficulty for Democrats: they need more votes than Republicans to win,” points out Ludivine Gilli.

“It’s going to be an extremely close race.”

Jen O’Malley Dillon, Kamala Harris campaign chair

to CNN

With eight weeks to go, all eyes are on the key states that will determine the outcome of the election. According to polls for CNN in early September, Kamala Harris is slightly ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, but neck and neck in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Her rival is ahead of her in Arizona. “The trend of the last few weeks is favorable to Harris, but what will happen now? asks Ludivine Gilli. The debate will tell us a little more.” An opinion shared by Clifford Young: “Will she run out of steam? [dans les sondages] ? The debate will be decisive.”


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