The Liberal caucus is set to meet in Nanaimo, B.C., next week for a retreat ahead of the fall parliamentary session. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau insists he will lead his party into the next election, despite polls showing he is unpopular with Canadians. Here’s a look at what would happen if he decided to step down.
Could Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resign?
Absolutely. But the decision to resign becomes much more difficult now that the NDP has pulled out of its support and confidence agreement with the Liberals, which helped keep the minority government in power. If Justin Trudeau were to resign, the NDP could vote with the Conservatives on a confidence motion and trigger a snap election. That could leave the Liberal Party leaderless as the other parties compete for votes.
What would happen if he resigned?
An interim leader would be named and a leadership race would be called. The party president would have 27 days to call a meeting with the Liberal board of directors. A leadership vote committee would also be formed to plan, organize and conduct the race.
How soon could a new leader be appointed?
It’s not usually a quick process. Mr. Trudeau won after a five-month race, but the planning had been underway for years.
By comparison, it took the Conservatives two years to elect a new leader after Stephen Harper resigned following the 2015 election.
The race that brought Pierre Poilievre to lead the Conservatives in 2022 lasted eight months.
The Liberal Party constitution outlines the process for any potential candidate. The Liberals have at least 90 days before a leader election to announce their intention to run. They need at least 300 signatures from registered party members, 100 of which must come from Liberals in three different provinces.
Could Justin Trudeau resign while still completing his term?
Yes. But again, it would be complicated since the Liberal government is in a minority and there is the threat of an early election. New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh acknowledged this week that an election could be held earlier than expected, in October 2025.
Has a Prime Minister ever resigned?
Yes. In 2002, Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, facing a challenge from former Finance Minister and long-time rival Paul Martin, announced that he would not lead the Liberals in the next election.
In 1993, Prime Minister Brian Mulroney resigned as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party. Kim Campbell, Minister of Defence in Mr. Mulroney’s cabinet, won the race to succeed him.
Justin Trudeau’s popularity has also declined, so why is this different?
Messrs. Chrétien and Mulroney had majority governments, which allowed leadership races to take place without the threat of their administrations falling.
While there have been rumblings of discontent with Mr. Trudeau within his party, he continues to enjoy public support from cabinet and caucus. The exception is Liberal MP Wayne Long, who has called for his resignation.
Moreover, there is no clear heir apparent to Mr. Trudeau. Contenders for his job include Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney.
Why were American Democrats able to replace their presidential candidate?
Canada and the United States have different systems of government, and Democrats and Liberals have their own party rules.
Although US President Joe Biden was the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee, he was not yet their official candidate. That allowed Democrats to change their candidate ahead of their convention in Chicago last month.
It is still up to Democratic delegates to officially vote for an official presidential candidate at their convention.
As there was no major intra-party challenge, it allowed for a smooth transition to replace Mr Biden’s name on the ticket with that of US Vice President Kamala Harris.
Can the Liberals oust Justin Trudeau?
This is unlikely. The Liberal Party constitution states that the party leader can only be removed from office due to a triggering event such as electoral defeat, incapacity or death.