Chinese Advances in the Arctic | Commercial Priority or Naval Strategy?

Russian and Chinese bombers patrolled the Bering Strait together for the first time this summer. The Middle Kingdom has been increasingly interested in the Arctic for the past 15 years. Will Canada have a new neighbour?

Why are Bering Strait patrols noteworthy?

Because they follow several years of Sino-Russian naval patrols, according to Rob Huebert, an Arctic geopolitics expert at the University of Calgary.

“China clearly wants to learn how to operate effectively in an Arctic environment and weather,” Huebert said. “The Russians have that experience and are passing it on. Operating a bomber from a Russian base in the High North is a significant investment, a big step forward.”

“This summer, the Sino-Russian naval patrol penetrated the American maritime economic space in the Aleutian Islands,” notes Stéphanie Pézard, a political scientist at the Californian think tank RAND who published a report in 2022 on Chinese ambitions in the Arctic. “They invoked a right of ‘innocent passage,’” says M^me Pézard. The US Coast Guard intervened to monitor them. This is not insignificant.

What are China’s activities in the Arctic?

In 2018, China launched the concept of a “polar silk road” in a white paper on the Arctic, M said.^me Pézard: “So there is the idea of ​​using the Arctic as a sea route.”

Does this approach hold up in the face of the “decoupling” between the Chinese and Western economies desired by the United States?

China has had a scientific station in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard since 2003. “Chinese activities in the Arctic are often presented in this light, particularly for the study of climate change,” says the Los Angeles political scientist. “A few years ago, there was a project for an aurora borealis observatory in Iceland and another for participation in a satellite tracking station in Sweden. Both were blocked because of the importance of the region for Atlantic defense.”

What is China’s goal in the Arctic?

Recent Chinese technological advances show a desire to extend a potential confrontation over Taiwan to the Arctic, Huebert said.

“The Chinese balloons that crossed the Canadian and American Far North [en 2023] were certainly part of an espionage plan to test detection and response capabilities, he said. Last year, China set up an underwater listening station in the Arctic. There appear to be plans for a hardened nuclear submarine capable of navigating under polar ice. Add to that the announcement that China now has a drone and a mini-submarine capable of navigating under ice, and you have the capability to cut undersea cables or pipelines.

This threat will force the United States to protect its Arctic coast in the event of a conflict, according to the Alberta political scientist. “That means many naval units that will not be available to defend Taiwan.”

Is Canada ready to face this threat?

“There have been announcements of a truly polar icebreaker, but it’s been talked about since 1985, so I’m skeptical,” says Rob Huebert. “Canada, in the 1950s and ’60s, was at the forefront of Arctic defence with radar stations and military exercises. There are also documents showing that Canada participated in American submarine missions under the ice. But all that changed with Trudeau Sr..”

Canada has only two heavy icebreakers, the Louis S. St-Laurent and the Terry Foxwhich entered service in 1969 and 1983 respectively. “Three medium icebreakers entered service in the late 1970s and early 1980s,” Huebert said. “There were other purchases after that, but never a heavy icebreaker.”

THE Louis S. St-Laurent and the Terry Fox are polar class 4 and the future Arpatuuqplanned for 2030, which will replace the Louis S. St-Laurentwould be polar class 2. A class 2 icebreaker can navigate in 3 m ice compared to 1.2 m for class 4.

Does China have icebreakers?

Two already and a third in preparation, in collaboration with Russian industry. And technologies useful for a nuclear icebreaker have been patented in China, notes Mr. Huebert.

“Russia is the only country in the world that can go anywhere in the Arctic, thanks to its nuclear icebreakers. If China equips itself in this way, it could break the Russian monopoly on certain Arctic regions.”

What is Russia’s goal?

Increased isolation since the invasion of Ukraine makes China even more indispensable to Tolstoy’s homeland. “But Russia is aware that its large Arctic coastline makes it vulnerable to a China that can operate in the Arctic,” says Stephanie Pezard.

The Russians are aware that Xi Jinping’s ultimate goal is to restore the situation that existed before the “unfair treaties” with the West in the 19th century.^e century, Mr. Huebert adds. “Tsarist Russia has taken over many territories in the Far East that were controlled by the Qing empire. China is a circumstantial ally rather than a staunch one.”

The increase in the number of Chinese nuclear missiles, from 300 to 800 over the past 10 years, is certainly worrying Russia, according to Mr. Huebert. “By 2030, China should achieve nuclear parity with Russia. Cooperation in the Arctic must take this threat into account.”