The resurgence of monkeypox (MPOX) in some African countries is being closely monitored by the Public Health Agency of Canada. One of the more dangerous variants is at risk of spreading to Canada, although overall public health assesses the risk of contracting MPOX as low.
Benoit Barbeau, a professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at UQAM and an expert in virology, believes it is only a matter of time before the problematic sub-variant that is raging in Africa arrives on Canadian soil. “The famous sub-variant Ib, it will arrive in Canada. I am not saying that it will create huge problems, but it reminds us that these viruses can evolve,” he says.
There are two main variants of mpox. The one currently present in Canada is clade II, which is not the most worrisome. Clade I is a more dangerous variant. “What is worrisome in Africa right now, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is that there is a new variant of group I that is more infectious, more transmissible and more dangerous,” commented Mr. Barbeau.
“I don’t think we have to worry too much, but right now, with the fall coming, we’re going to have a cocktail of respiratory viruses so we don’t want to add too many infectious agents,” explains the expert.
As of August 12, 164 cases of monkeypox have been reported in Canada since the beginning of 2024. The Quebec Ministry of Health reported that 10 cases have been reported in the province during this period. This is significantly lower than the 527 cases reported in 2022 during the outbreak.
The Ministry of Health expects to detect sporadic cases in Quebec, “especially during the summer period due to travel and following a slight increase compared to 2023 in certain regions, including the United States and Ontario.” It reminds that vaccination is still offered to people at risk.
Barbeau believes that a global vaccination effort in Africa, ahead of the current surge, could have prevented the virus from mutating in this way. “These were endemic countries, so the virus was already there, but there was enough of an increase for the virus to evolve. The fact that we allowed this more active transmission led to sub-variants,” he explains.
“We want to contain, but also be able to manage more serious cases of infection. This virus is likely to add itself – probably not in an alarming way – but it makes one more. And we could have acted better if we had been able to more actively vaccinate the African population in the most affected countries rather than leaving them behind.”
“It is this neglect that can create more problems and even if it is on the African continent that it is now acting, there could be spillovers, epidemics, more local in Canada,” warns Mr. Barbeau.
WHO declares public health emergency
This week, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency of international concern due to the increasing number of affected countries in Africa and the emergence of a new strain of MPOS clade I. WHO recommendations on this situation will be published in the coming days.
Global Affairs Canada says it is working with Gavi — the organization that tries to ensure different vaccines for different diseases are distributed equitably around the world. Canada is exploring potential donations to ensure vaccines reach those who need them most.
Mr. Barbeau emphasizes the importance of getting vaccines to countries that need them. “We know that there is a risk of cases of infection here, but we still have to act where the intensity of transmission is highest,” he argues.
The Government of Canada assures that it has sufficient supplies of monkeypox vaccine to meet the needs of its provinces and territories.
Since July 2022, the Public Health Agency of Canada has been monitoring the mpox virus through wastewater surveillance. Testing is being conducted for clade I and clade II. To date, no cases of clade I have been identified in Canada.
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