A wildfire season that is more intense than average and a hurricane season that is off to a strong start: the federal government took stock of the extreme events of summer 2024 at a press conference on Monday.
An intense fire season
Although the 2024 season will be much less active than that of 2023 – “the most exceptional in at least 100 years,” recalls Yan Boulanger, a researcher at Natural Resources Canada – it nevertheless remains above normal in terms of areas burned and the number of people evacuated, particularly in the West.
In total, 3.4 million hectares have burned so far this year in Canada. That’s a million more than the average, calculated between 2013 and 2022. Last year at the same time, we were talking about 12 million hectares burned.
There are currently 474 active fires in the territory requiring response – nearly 400 of which are in British Columbia and Alberta.
For the rest of the season, the risk remains particularly high in the West.
Contrasting situation in the East
In the east of the country, “several major fires have been declared on the North Shore and in certain regions of Labrador,” underlines Yan Boulanger, notably because of a lack of precipitation.
In southern Quebec, on the other hand, heavy rains in the spring and the passage of the remains of hurricanes Beryl And Debby have reduced the risk of wildfires. And in Ontario, for the first time in years, the fire season was less active than average.
PHOTO PETER MCCABE, CANADIAN PRESS ARCHIVES
Debby dumped 75 to 220 mm in Quebec, and 50 to 130 mm of rain in Ontario, on August 9 and 10
As a reminder, Beryl brought between 20 and 100 mm of precipitation to Ontario and Quebec in mid-July. For its part, Debby dumped 75 to 220 mm in Quebec, and 50 to 130 mm of rain in Ontario, on August 9 and 10.
Hurricanes: a “fairly active” start to the season
Hurricane season got off to a strong start with the passage of Berylthen from Debby. “We certainly have a fairly active start to the season,” says Sébastien Chouinard, director of the Meteorological Service at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). “The water in the Atlantic is extremely warm, which is conducive to the development of hurricanes.”
The season usually peaks around September 10.
Four tropical storms have been named so far in the Atlantic, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts there could be between 17 and 24 this season. That compares to an average of 14 per year over the past 30 years.
Heat waves more likely
British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan experienced temperatures 3 to 4°C above normal for the month of July.
Several heat waves were also recorded in the west of the country in June and July, with temperatures sometimes reaching 10°C above normal.
ECCC climatologists analyzed each of these heat waves using climate models to compare today’s climate to that of the pre-industrial period.
“Human influence on the climate has made these phenomena at least 2 to 10 times more likely,” says Nathan Gillett, a researcher at ECCC.
Work is underway to extend this attribution system to the analysis of other events, such as extreme precipitation.
Resilience to extreme events
Canada’s Minister of Rural Economic Development Gudie Hutchings stressed the importance of “being well prepared” for extreme events, which are likely to become more severe and frequent with climate change. She noted that the government is working with municipalities to build more resilient infrastructure.
Jenica Atwin, secretary to the Minister of Indigenous Services, also wanted to reiterate the federal government’s support for the 9,000 First Nations people displaced by the wildfires.
“We have not forgotten you,” she said. “We will stand with you, supporting your efforts to protect your communities and, of course, to rebuild.”
“First Nations are on the front lines of the impacts of climate change, with 80% of their communities exposed to the risk of forest fires,” she recalled.