Red heat in the Southwest

This is not the campaign start that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals needed.

Barely nominated, their candidate Laura Palestini is contested. Three other candidates had indicated their interest. But instead of organizing an investiture and letting the members choose, the party imposed M^me Palestini, a city councilwoman. The statement was issued Friday afternoon, a strategy usually used to prevent disgruntled people from having time to speak out in the media.

The imposition of a candidate can be defended. Parties usually do it to nominate a star, who is spared the internal race stage. But in this case, the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) is doing it for a candidate with little local notoriety.

Local activists are at risk of being demobilized. This is likely to lower turnout, and favour their rivals.

This could add to the party’s woes. Across the country, the Liberals are garnering 24% of voting intentions, far behind the Conservatives’ 42%. Their defeat seems almost certain, according to poll aggregator 338Canada. They are therefore unable to attract a star to what should nevertheless be a stronghold. The resigning MP David Lametti, a former McGill professor, had this profile when he launched in 2015.

But the strongholds are practically no longer there for the PLC. Those who enjoy a good career do not want to make the leap to spend a few months in the party in power before undergoing what risks resembling purgatory in the opposition benches.

The by-election will take place on September 16. It is tempting to write that this will be the last chance for the Liberals who want to change their leader. But there was already talk a few months ago of several other “last chances”, and there could be others, so it is better to keep a little embarrassment.

What is certain is that Mr. Trudeau wants to remain in control and that each day that passes brings him closer to an apparent shipwreck.

The most recent “last chance” was the Toronto–St. Paul’s by-election. The Liberals had held it since 1993. Their support fell by nearly 10 points and they narrowly lost to the Conservatives.

It was their first defeat in the last 80 elections in Toronto, and a grim omen for what’s to come.

In LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, it will be different. The Conservatives have no hope there — they have always finished fourth there. And they will invest all their energies in the other by-election, in Elmwood–Transcona, in Manitoba, where they have a chance to dethrone the New Democratic Party (NDP).

The fight in southwest Montreal will once again be between three parties: the Liberals, the New Democrats and the Bloc. This split in the vote, which was smaller in Toronto–St. Paul’s, will benefit the Liberals. But it also makes the race unpredictable.

NDP candidate Craig Sauvé is also a municipal councillor. Well-known in the area, he has been in pre-campaign mode for several months. He was motivated by the provincial victory of the Solidaires in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, which shares some neighbourhoods with the federal riding. However, the NDP is disappearing in Quebec and its leader, Jagmeet Singh, is unable to take advantage of the Liberal miseries.

The Bloc, for its part, must be surprised to have modest chances. This sector of Montreal has rarely been sympathetic to the sovereignists.

Although three-way contests are unpredictable, the Liberals remain the favourites. Their lead is more solid than the one that melted away in Toronto–St. Paul’s.

A recent Mainstreet poll gives them 26% support in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, ahead of the Bloc and the NDP (23% for both), then the CPC (12%). It should be noted, however, that the sample is small (329 respondents) and that the margin of error would be high (5.4% if the sample had been probabilistic).

The fact remains that even a narrow victory would be problematic for Justin Trudeau. The by-election takes place on September 16, the day Parliament returns to Ottawa. Beyond the result, it is its psychological impact that will need to be kept in mind. If the Liberals lose support, other MPs will worry about their future. While having lost hope of keeping power in the next election, they may want to change leaders to save their seats.

MP Lametti resigned on 1^er February. Mr. Trudeau could have called the by-election as early as the end of March. He waited the permitted limit, six months, to do so. He also chose not to hold this election on the same day as the one in Toronto.

Why? One hypothesis: he wants to campaign by warning Canadians against the rightward shift that Pierre Poilievre is preparing, and he hopes that time will reveal the true face of his opponent. The American presidential campaign, with the fear of seeing a cousin of Donald Trump emerge in Canada, could help the Liberals, thinks Mr. Trudeau.

But that is not what is happening. Judging by the polls, if people are afraid of anything, it is that liberal rule will continue. And American politics could contaminate our debates in another way: by setting an example of an unpopular politician who gives up his seat for the good of his party.

But a different scenario is emerging: one in which the party’s heavyweights slowly announce their departure and leave the captain to bravely face one last storm, giving the final word to the voters.