Venezuela | Presidential election under high tension with a power at bay and an over-motivated opposition

(Caracas) “Hasta la victoria siempre” promises the government, “Until the end” swears the opposition: both camps are convinced of winning a tense presidential election on Sunday in Venezuela pitting the incumbent Nicolas Maduro, who has spoken of a possible “bloodbath”, against the candidate for “change” Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.

Some 21 million of Venezuela’s 30 million people are expected to go to polling stations open from 6 a.m. (6 a.m. Eastern Time) to 6 p.m. (6 p.m. Eastern Time) with results expected overnight.

Ten candidates are in the running, but the election is coming down to a duel between Mr Maduro, 61, who is seeking a third six-year term, and the discreet diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, 74, who replaced at short notice the charismatic opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was declared ineligible.

Polls show the opposition in the lead, but some observers say the fight is close. Citing other figures, the regime says it is confident of victory.

Heir to Hugo Chavez, the former socialist-inspired president from 1999 until his death in 2013, Mr. Maduro, who relies on the army and police harassment of the opposition, regularly promises that he will not give up power, predicting chaos without him.

“The future of Venezuela for the next 50 years will be decided on July 28, between a Venezuela of peace or violence. Peace or war,” he said, after having mentioned a possible “bloodbath in a fratricidal civil war provoked by the fascists.”

These remarks “scared” Brazilian President Lula, for whom “Maduro must learn that when you win, you stay [au pouvoir]. When we lose, we leave.”

Sunday “will undoubtedly be the most important democratic expression of the people in recent years,” Gonzalez Urrutia said on Saturday, inviting “citizens to go to their polling stations at the end of the day and see the clarity of the results obtained.”

“There is a movement for change,” says Luis Salamanca, a professor at the Central University of Venezuela. Under “normal” voting conditions, “there will be an extremely broad victory for the opposition.”

Most pollsters estimate that Mr Maduro will not exceed 30% and put the opposition at between 50 and 70%.

“We can’t stand this dictatorship anymore,” says Mercedes Henriquez, a 68-year-old retiree. “There is no hope for life here, no economic hope, no hope of finding work,” complains Ana Colmenares, a 20-year-old psychology student.

Oil crisis

The oil country, long one of the richest in Latin America, is bled dry, mired in an unprecedented economic crisis.

As a result of mismanagement and corruption, oil production collapsed from over three million barrels/day to just under 1 million. GDP shrank by 80% in ten years with hyperinflation forcing the authorities to partially dollarize the economy.

Seven million Venezuelans have fled the country. The majority of those who remain live in poverty, with health and education systems in a state of complete disrepair.

The government accuses the “criminal blockade” of being the root of all evils. The United States had tightened its sanctions in an attempt to oust Mr. Maduro after his contested re-election in 2018, in a vote marred by fraud according to the opposition, which led to demonstrations that were severely repressed.

Washington tried to force Mr Maduro into “democratic and competitive” elections without influencing Caracas, which confirmed Mr Maduro’s ineligibility.^me Machado and withdrew his invitation to the European Union to observe the vote.

At the same time, the White House, eager to revive Venezuelan production in a context of tension over crude oil with the Ukrainian and Middle East crises, has opened the door with operating permits for foreign oil companies.

Army

“We are certain that the economic recovery is here, and will spread,” says Freddy Lovera, 27, a pro-Maduro.

Many fear that the current president, often described as a “dictator” by the opposition, will try to distort the game on Sunday.

“Although the elections are unlikely to be free or fair, Venezuelans have the best chance in more than a decade to choose their own government,” said Juanita Goebertus of Human Rights Watch.

Rebecca Hanson of the University of Florida believes that “violence after the results are announced is possible,” stressing that the chances of Mr. Maduro agreeing to leave power are “low.”

One of the keys will be the attitude of the security apparatus. “The Bolivarian National Armed Force supports me,” says Mr. Maduro. His rival, Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia, calls on the military to “respect and enforce (the) sovereign will” of the people.