Last Sunday, French voters cast their ballots in the second round of early legislative elections. While the results of the first round indicated a lead for the far-right National Rally (RN) party, the second round gave a majority of seats (182) to the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), followed by the presidential camp (168) and finally by the RN camp and its Republican allies (143). A victory for the left that is illustrated, in the French press, more broadly as a victory for the “Republican front” against the far right.
Contrary to expectations from the first round, the NFP obtained a majority of seats, which among other things marks the desire of a portion of the voters to push the RN back from the gates of power. However, this weight in seats does not give it a majority in the National Assembly, notes the President of the Republic, but also political leaders from the center, the right and the far right. A complex political situation that raises historical and determining questions.
The historic nature of these elections
Under the Ve Republic, these early legislative elections are historic both in their triggering and in their results for three reasons.
First, the triggering of these elections, provoked by the dissolution ordered by Emmanuel Macron, was not understood. And the reason given by the president — to clarify the political situation — was not validated. On the contrary, he highlighted the fragmentation of political parties and the progression of the extreme right.
Second, the dissolution of the National Assembly and the election campaigns have considerably blurred the partisan balances. The left-wing political parties have gathered around a coalition, the NFP; the historic party of the right, Les Républicains, has split with the rallying of its leader, Éric Ciotti, to the RN camp; the far-right party Reconquête, led by Éric Zemmour, has imploded following the departure of several of its leaders, including the party’s vice-president, Marion Maréchal.
During the campaign for the first round of the elections, three opposition blocs stood out: the left, the presidential camp and the far right. The arguments of the opponents on both sides also warned of threats on the left and the far right. And the campaign for the second round was marked by gradual steps towards the temporary reestablishment of the “republican front” in reaction to the possible arrival of the RN at Matignon.
Finally, the Prime Minister traditionally comes from the political camp that has won the majority of seats. This is usually the presidential camp, except in the case of cohabitation – the last one was in 1997, under the presidency of Jacques Chirac. The President of the Republic should therefore, in principle, appoint a Prime Minister from the majority, i.e. from the left. However, Emmanuel Macron’s desire to appoint a Prime Minister representing a “solid majority” and the comments of a part of his camp that is resistant to any alliance with a part of the NFP (Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise party, in this case) do not favor this projection.
An uncertain sequel
To date, what comes next seems abstruse and uncertain in light of the statements made by political leaders. A deadlock is therefore not excluded. For the moment, President Macron has kept in office the Prime Minister of his camp, Gabriel Attal, to ensure political stability in the country, but left-wing leaders already fear that the situation will continue.
And although the NFP won a majority of seats, the RN emerged from this electoral exercise stronger. It can count on a larger subsidy than before, more seats than in 2022 and increased normalisation within the population. Marine Le Pen, re-elected president of the RN group in the National Assembly and candidate in the 2022 presidential elections, also considers that this is “a delayed victory” in view of the 2027 presidential election.
The victory of the left is therefore likely to be short-lived. If a third of French voters (35%) voted in these elections to block a candidate, what will happen in the next elections?
Two of the reasons determining the choice of voting for the RN refer to the feeling of social downgrading and the disaffection for the presidential camp. Political leaders, particularly on the left, must propose solutions if they do not want to see the ranks of the RN swell in the next elections. In this perspective, and beyond the programmatic divergences, an alliance between the left and the presidential camp would seem unwelcome.
But at the same time, without an absolute majority, a left-wing government would have difficulty maintaining itself in the face of threats of motions of censure. Finally, a possible coalition between the presidential camp and the right or a technical government would force the left to position itself.
Finally, these elections have once again demonstrated the strength of the blockade vote in France. A repetition that does not comfort voters in their choice and weakens the democratic spirit of the majority vote. In response, leaders and political scientists from several political families are proposing, among other things, a way out of the crisis with the establishment of a proportional vote or the development of a new Constitution. The next few days will be decisive.
Thus, the results of these elections do not only concern the policy pursued by the government and the disarmament of political families (except the extreme right): they generate a reflection on the democratic balance and the need to respond to the expectations of voters.