If on the left, “everyone plays their lane”, after the presidential election “will be catastrophic”, warns Sunday January 9 on franceinfo Olivier Rouquan, political scientist and researcher associated with the Center for Studies and Research of Administrative and Political Sciences (CERSA). With less than 100 days of the first round, the forces of the left remain weak in voting intentions.
franceinfo: You would say that it is the division which weighs down the left in this campaign?
On paper, when we look at the issues that are priorities for public opinion, purchasing power, health, the environment, etc., we rather have a context that could have been favorable to programs carried by political parties. left. However, we find ourselves in a situation where they are not too visible, audible and for the moment in the voting intentions, their results are very weak. The disorganization of parties and the divisions that have grown over the last ten, fifteen years prevent the left from being sufficiently present in this pre-campaign. The proposal to have a single candidacy also disrupted the game.
Was the primary of the left, it was a way for Anne Hidalgo to clear herself of an announced failure?
There is this idea that if the Socialist Party does not reach 5%, the PS will not be reimbursed for its campaign costs, which for him would be really catastrophic. So, we don’t really know if it was a clumsy trick or a sincere posture. But in any case, it could have disconcerted the activists: we remember the meeting in Perpignan, which was considered successful. However, at the same time, the candidate said that she might not be a candidate until the end if there was a primary. To motivate, that is not the most effective.
Does Christiane Taubira’s candidacy simply add confusion to this landscape?
For the moment yes, but you never know, it can be put in order at the last moment. But it would be a miracle because, now that there is no more primary, Anne Hidalgo announced that she would go to the end.
What are the issues for the left?
There are two options: first, that there is sudden awareness of the leaders and an agreement around one, but if it is to take place it is within 15 days. Or, everyone plays their lane for the aftermath. But if the results are weak, and it seems they will be, the aftermath will be catastrophic and augur for the reconstruction of left-wing political parties.
“Afterwards, it will not be a large number of elected to the National Assembly.”
Olivier Rouquan, political scientist and associate researcher at the Center for Studies and Research in Administrative and Political Sciencesto franceinfo
The trap is that: the voter thinks of the future and without the possibility of governing, the credibility of these candidates remains weak.