Around twenty countries, including France and Germany, vote on Sunday to choose their MEPs, closing an electoral marathon likely to reshape the political balances of a European Parliament where the far right is expected in force.
At the end of a campaign with a tense climate due to the war in Ukraine and suspicions of Russian disinformation, strong scores from the radical right, nationalists and eurosceptics could complicate the majorities in the hemicycle and reconfigure alliances.
In total, more than 360 million Europeans are called to the polls to nominate 720 members of the European Parliament. The Netherlands kicked off Thursday by confirming, according to estimates, a push by Geert Wilders’ far-right party.
In Italy, where voting began on Saturday and continued on Sunday, the post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia (FDI) party of head of government Giorgia Meloni is the big favorite and could send 22 MEPs to the hemicycle, compared to six currently.
The results in the two largest countries of the Union will also be scrutinized. Polls in France predict a historic victory for the National Rally (RN) led by Jordan Bardella, far ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s party list.
The German conservatives should come well ahead (30.5% according to a poll) in a bitter setback for socialist chancellor Olaf Scholz. But the Socialists and Greens are battling for second place with the AfD, a far-right party capitalizing on a gloomy economic situation.
And this even if the AfD saw its expected gains crumble over the course of the scandals splashing its head of list – suspected of Russian and Chinese financing – which caused it to be excluded from the group to which it belonged in the European Parliament alongside the RN.
Upset balances
In Austria, the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is leading an election for the first time, and in Poland, the centrist pro-European coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk is expected to almost be equality with the populist nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party followed by the far-right Konfederacja party, very Eurosceptic.
While MEPs adopt legislation in concert with states, the rise of radical rights could influence crucial issues: defense against an expansionist Russia, agricultural policy, 2040 climate objective, pursuit of environmental measures, etc.
This election “will determine the next five years”, assured Mme Meloni, who reaffirmed wanting to “defend the borders against illegal immigration, protect the real economy, fight against unfair competition”.
While the balance resulting from the elections will also determine the allocation of leading positions in the EU, the Italian leader could play a crucial role in the reappointment of Ursula von der Leyen, from the EPP (right), as president of the Commission European.
His appointment, which must be validated by the leaders of the Twenty-Seven and then by Parliament, is not certain.
If the EPP should remain the first force in Parliament (some 170 seats according to polls), followed by the Social Democrats (some 140 seats expected), the issue is the third position where Renew Europe (liberals, including the Renaissance party of Emmanuel Macron) sees himself threatened by the rise of the two radical right groups, ECR (which includes Fratelli d’Italia) and ID (which includes the French RN).
Far-rights divided over Russia
The current right/socialist/liberal “grand coalition”, which forges compromises in the chamber, should retain the majority but see its room for maneuver reduced, forcing it to find additional forces and auguring intense negotiations.
Giorgia Meloni is courted by Mme von der Leyen who sees in her a good, pro-European and pro-Ukraine partner. But also by the leading figure of the RN Marine Le Pen, who dreams of forming a large nationalist group combining members of ECR and ID.
A very uncertain prospect: if they share a displayed euroscepticism and sovereignism, their possible merger remains complicated by significant differences, particularly on Russia.
Unlike Giorgia Meloni but also the radical right parties in Poland, Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose Fidesz party is credited with 50%, led a campaign hostile to aid to Kiev and alarmist on the risks of the conflict escalating, designating the EU and NATO as guilty and eclipsing the role of Moscow, to which Mr. Orban is close.
In neighboring Slovakia, the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Robert Fico boosted support for his pro-Putin-leaning camp.
Enough to hamper negotiations at European level, at a time when the Twenty-Seven are seeking to strengthen their defense industry while struggling to release the necessary funds.
In the wake of the European election, Defense issues will take center stage at the G7 summit from June 13 to 15 in Italy.