As the presidential election nears, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are concluding their campaigns in Michigan and Pennsylvania, respectively, with over 75 million Americans having voted by mail. While the U.S. maintains its economic dominance, both candidates offer differing visions for the country, particularly in foreign policy and societal issues. Economic concerns dominate voters’ priorities, revealing a shared inclination towards a “transactional America,” with contrasting approaches to immigration and the role of government in economic matters.
Trump and Harris: A Presidential Showdown
As the American presidential election approaches, the two leading candidates have wrapped up their campaigns—Donald Trump in Michigan and Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania. The nationwide voting event is set for Tuesday, November 5, but a significant number of Americans—over 75 million—have already cast their ballots by mail. While the election results are anticipated on the evening of November 5 or early November 6, the process may take longer due to the extensive counting of mail-in votes, leaving both Americans and the global community in suspense about the outcome.
America’s Global Economic Influence
Despite the rise of China, the United States continues to hold its position as the dominant economic force worldwide. Projections suggest that American growth could reach 2.8% in 2024, following a 2.5% growth in 2023, with a GDP of $21.78 trillion (in constant 2015 dollars). On both societal and geopolitical fronts, the U.S. remains a significant player on the international stage. While Kamala Harris and Donald Trump may seem to offer contrasting visions for America, a closer look reveals a consistent political framework, as noted by Jérémy Ghez, a Franco-American expert in economics and international relations at HEC Paris.
The past years have led the U.S. to adopt a principle that favors its own middle-class interests: “What benefits the world also benefits America.” This perspective began to shift during the latter years of George W. Bush’s presidency and was further developed by Barack Obama, who questioned the nation’s role in global affairs. Trump’s administration intensified this sentiment with his “Make America Great Again” campaign, moving away from the U.S.’s previous role as a global guardian.
Biden, since taking office in 2021, has sought to merge previous foreign policy approaches into one that focuses on the middle class, particularly those affected by conflicts and economic crises. A consensus in Washington has emerged, recognizing China as a competitor that must be countered. However, the administration’s stance on issues like Ukraine and the Middle East remains somewhat ambiguous, as Ghez points out.
Both candidates aim to reinforce the U.S.’s strategic standing globally and bolster American industry, though they differ in style. Harris leans towards a more traditional diplomatic approach, while Trump adopts a more direct and uncompromising stance. When it comes to foreign policy, Harris pledges long-term support for Ukraine, while Trump claims he could resolve the conflict within a day by leveraging his connections with both Zelensky and Putin. Ghez notes that many Americans perceive Europe as a distraction from more pressing issues like China and Iran.
The Rise of a “Transactional America” by 2025
The candidates’ societal positions reveal a sharper contrast. Harris supports abortion rights, women’s rights, and minority protections, whereas Trump advocates against “wokeness” and accuses leftist ideologies of infiltrating schools. On immigration, Trump emphasizes resuming the construction of a border wall and deporting undocumented immigrants, framing the situation as an impending invasion. In contrast, Harris adopts a more tempered approach to immigration reform.
As the election campaign unfolds, economic concerns have taken center stage, with 90% of Americans prioritizing this issue. According to an Ipsos poll, 85% of citizens regard inflation as a top concern. Many view Trump as more credible on economic matters (48% to 40% in favor of Harris). Despite their differing approaches, Ghez observes a shared vision of a “transactional America,” where decisions are made based on clearly defined costs and benefits. This notion reflects a new wave of protectionism, with Trump advocating for higher tariffs on imports from China, while Harris focuses on ensuring that the U.S. prevails in the 21st-century economic competition, particularly through initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).