The article discusses NATO’s ongoing concerns about the potential ramifications of a second Trump presidency in the 2024 US election. It highlights anxieties stemming from Trump’s unpredictable first term, which included damaging actions towards allies and military commitments. Experts debate the feasibility of making NATO “Trump-proof” amidst warnings that a second term could exacerbate these challenges. There is a call for European nations to enhance military readiness and rethink collective defense approaches in case of diminished US involvement.
US Election 2024 and Its NATO Implications
The lingering effects of Donald Trump’s initial presidency continue to resonate within NATO. The prospect of his return looms large over the defense alliance, prompting discussions on how to make NATO resilient against his potential second term. But can it be achieved?
As Trump’s presidency drew to a close four years ago, a sense of anxiety pervaded the halls of NATO headquarters. Diplomats and military leaders were hopeful for a new beginning, as many were weary from navigating the tumultuous years under Trump’s leadership.
The leader of NATO’s most significant member had been marked by a penchant for unpredictability and unilateral action, raising concerns among allies.
When Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election was announced, relief swept through NATO’s ranks. Trump’s tenure had been tumultuous, characterized by decisions that alienated allies—such as pulling out of Syria and Iraq, destabilizing Afghanistan, and maintaining a dismissive attitude toward European partners.
So, what might a second Trump administration entail? Experts warn it could veer even further from traditional transatlantic collaboration.
Trump’s View of Europe
Jean-Claude Juncker, former President of the European Commission, captured Trump’s mindset in October 2020 by stating, “He never saw the Europeans as allies, but rather as adversaries seeking to undermine America’s standing.” Juncker, who had managed to maintain some level of rapport with Trump, criticized the former president’s views on the European Union as a ploy aimed at diminishing American power globally.
Spending and Defense Policies
The pressure on European allies was palpable, especially for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country’s military expenditure had dipped to about 1.2% of GDP—far below the agreed target of 2%. Trump’s consistent calls for increased spending were a source of discomfort, and he made no secret of addressing this issue with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Trump’s first visit to the NATO headquarters in 2017 set the tone, as he wasted no time in admonishing member nations over their defense obligations.
New NATO Leadership and Mixed Messages
Recently, newly appointed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed that Trump had spurred countries to elevate their defense spending. This affirmation surprised many, reflecting a notable shift in perspective that some allies have adopted regarding criticisms of China.
The audience questioned whom Rutte was directing his remarks at, particularly with Trump now facing off against Kamala Harris in the electoral race. The potential for a repeat of the previous administration’s upheaval is a concern, and NATO aims to be better prepared this time around.
A term has emerged in security policy circles: “Trump-proof.” This concept embodies NATO’s need to safeguard against a scenario where a second Trump presidency could plunge the alliance into a crisis.
Trump’s recent statements have raised alarms; he suggested he would only assist nations that “pay their bills” during conflicts, leaving the door open for greater Russian influence.
Challenges of Preparing for Uncertainty
Marco Overhaus, a researcher in US politics at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, argues that the notion of making NATO “Trump-proof” is unrealistic. Outright American withdrawal from NATO or significant troop reductions could leave Europe vulnerable.
Overhaus highlighted the structural imbalance in the transatlantic relationship, where the US bears 75% of defense responsibilities, leaving Europe with just 25%. The notion of Trump as a US presidential candidate creates uncertainty for NATO, as he has indicated he might not defend NATO allies that fall short of their commitments.
The Desire for Strong Leadership
From NATO’s perspective, having a dependable leader like Kamala Harris in the White House for four more years could help rectify existing imbalances in the alliance.
Europeans still heavily rely on the US for critical military capacities, including air defense and nuclear capabilities, alongside an effective command structure for large-scale deployments.
Political Repercussions and Strategic Readiness
Political scientist Overhaus believes that Europe must not only catch up militarily but should also prepare for the possibility of a politically disengaged US under a Trump 2.0 administration. He warns that if the US adopts an “empty chair policy” reminiscent of Charles de Gaulle’s era, Europe will need a proactive response, reevaluating traditional collective decision-making practices.
This scenario could require Europe to gird itself against potential US maneuvers