1.5 degree warming target ‘straight out of reach’, IPCC rapporteur says

François Gemenne pleads for the 27th UN climate conference to set the objective of limiting the general rise in temperatures to two degrees by the end of the century, i.e. the commitment signed in Paris in 2015.

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The goal of a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees by the end of the century “is downright out of reach”, estimates Sunday, November 6 on franceinfo the rapporteur of the Giec François Gemenne. However, he believes that “it is never too late” and that the COP27 which opened this Sunday in Egypt can set itself “achievable objectives”. “It’s as if you’re trying to lose weight. Anything you do to limit greenhouse gas emissions will also limit the rise in temperature.”

Do you agree with the World Meteorological Organization that the goal of a 1.5 degree rise in temperature by the end of the century is now “barely within reach”?

It’s completely out of reach. You have to tell people the truth, this goal no longer seems attainable to me. We will be 1.5 degrees of temperature rise by around 2035. The greenhouse gas concentration threshold that corresponds to 1.5 degrees is 350 parts per million (ppm). It was crossed in the mid-1980s. Today we are around 417 ppm and each year we take about 2.6 additional ppm.

So what is this COP27 for?

It’s as if you were trying to lose weight. In reality, it is never too late. Everything you succeed in doing to limit greenhouse gas emissions will also limit the increase in temperature. So that’s what we’re going to try to do at COP27. Now, I think you have to be able to give yourself achievable goals that are not pipe dreams. Personally, I am pleading for a 2 degree objective to be set, which was the objective initially adopted by the Paris agreement. The 1.5 degree target was basically chosen to please small island states.

What should we expect from discussions on the financing of climate damage, in particular to re-establish dialogue between the countries of the South and the rich countries of the North?

Funding must follow. The countries of the South need it to also initiate their energy transition, to choose a low-carbon development path and to adapt to the consequences of climate change. From now on, money is also needed to compensate for the losses linked to the damage caused by climate change where adaptation is no longer possible. From the COP15, in 2009, we had promised an annual fund of 100 billion dollars but we are still only at 86 billion. This causes enormous resentment in the countries of the South. The longer we wait, the higher the temperatures and the higher the bill. But if we finally reach 100 billion this year, it would already be an important symbolic step in restoring some form of trust.


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