From the half a million new cars registered in the country on 2e By the 2024 quarter, 12.9% were zero-emission vehicles, a proportion still far from the federal government’s targets. It would be “very surprising” if those targets were met, according to one expert.
There were 511,173 new cars registered from coast to coast between April and June 2024, Statistics Canada reported Monday. That’s a 7.9 per cent increase from the same period last year. Of those, 12.9 per cent (65,733) were zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) — a term that includes battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. That figure was up from 10.1 per cent on June 2e quarter of 2023.
Quebec is a good student in the country with more than half of new ZEV registrations (51.6%). Ontario and British Columbia follow far behind, reporting 21.9% and 18.5% of ZEV registrations respectively.
Of the 129,429 vehicles sold in La Belle Province during the 2e In the quarter, 33,911 were battery electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles, or 26% of new registrations. The province registered 68.5% more ZEVs than in the same quarter a year earlier.
Still far from the objectives
In its 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, the Government of Canada committed to ensuring that at least 20% of all new light-duty vehicles will be ZEVs by 2026. In the longer term, the government wants to see 60% of vehicles registered in the country be zero-emission by 2030, and 100% by 2035.
“I would be very surprised if the government reached the 20% objective within two years” and even more surprised if it reached the subsequent objectives, says Sylvain Audette, professor at HEC Montréal and associate member of the Research Chair in Energy Sector Management, who describes the objectives as “ambitious.”
“The progression curve that the government is using to set their targets is very aggressive, but it was based on the forecasts of global experts,” he explains. However, the adoption of ZEVs is slower than anticipated for several reasons, including production capacity not increasing fast enough and the high price of the vehicles, he says.
“The offer must be there at a reasonable price,” says Mr. Audette. However, last March, the Quebec government announced that it would gradually eliminate subsidies for the purchase of ZEVs by January 2027.
With one carrot less and considering Quebec’s commitment to ban the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles starting in 2035, is it time for the government to bring out the stick if it hopes to meet its objectives? “Politically, I don’t know if we’re there yet,” says Sylvain Audette. It would be surprising to see political parties propose measures that would force Quebecers to drastically change their transportation habits, according to the expert.
That said, decarbonization is broader than transportation. The government should also look at heating buildings and present a quantified plan — including in terms of costs — to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, says Audette. He spoke to Duty from his car, on his way to Quebec to present his comments on Bill 69 on energy reform, the study of which begins Tuesday and which promises to create a stir in the National Assembly.