The 20e Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which has just concluded has, unsurprisingly, kept Xi Jinping in power. The current president, who has ruled China for 10 years, is therefore starting a third term, something he made possible by amending in 2018 the Constitution put in place by the former CCP secretary, Deng Xiaoping, which limited terms. together.
Posted at 1:00 p.m.
The way therefore seems clear for the strong man of Beijing, who has strengthened his power by establishing a cult of personality worthy of the Great Helmsman and who, in the name of the fight against corruption, has known how to surround himself with followers and eliminate his opponents. During the opening speech of the Congress, he criticized the work of his predecessors and then painted a very positive portrait of his reign, reaffirming his intentions to make China a “great modern country in all fields” in 2035 and dedicated to reach the “first rank in the world” in 2049. To achieve this, Xi Jinping insisted on the fact that this would be done not in the West, but unlike those countries which have modernized “through war, colonization and looting”.
Undeniable progress
Xi Jinping can boast of the development of Chinese power on different levels. Economically first, by posing as a major rival of the United States, by increasing its hold on production chains on a global scale, and by becoming a creditor of many countries that have benefited from considerable investments. Then militarily, the Chinese army and navy – which Xi Jinping had made one of the first objectives of his fight against corruption – having become powers on a world scale. Diplomatically then, since China continued to extend its influence in several world organizations, in particular in the United Nations (UN), where it succeeded in blocking a vote of the Human Rights Council on the situation of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang.
The country has also extended its influence by competing with the United States in regions where it thought it was firmly established: in the Pacific, in the Solomon Islands, or in Latin America where Beijing widely distributed vaccines against COVID-19.
Technologically finally, by becoming a major space power, and by positioning itself as a leader in the field of advanced technologies such as 5G, or green, solar and wind energies in mind.
Heading for 2049
Many of these achievements stem from measures launched by Xi Jinping’s predecessors, but he has no qualms about taking credit for them. Among his many “thoughts” that pepper Chinese state media is “to persevere is to win.” Overcome adversity, defeatism, American pressure to compete with Chinese influence and products. While it is difficult to predict his long-term personal intentions, it is on the other hand obvious that his ambitious projects for China are part of a major deadline: that of 2049, the year of the centenary of the People’s Republic. .
Nevertheless, despite all his efforts and his iron fist, the Chinese leader will face significant challenges: the slowdown of his economy, the strong growth of youth unemployment, tensions and instability in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. , the thorny case of Taiwan, and the worrying signs that the flagship New Silk Roads project, launched in 2013, is running out of steam. As for the zero COVID-19 strategy, which continues to require significant sacrifices from the Chinese population, it arouses a muted but undeniable discontent, the manifestations of which could become visible.
To face these challenges, during this third mandate and who knows, during the following ones, Xi Jinping will apply his maxim and “persevere”. It will increase its grip on the Chinese people through increased surveillance, stay the course in its zero COVID-19 policy and try to revive the economy.
On the international scene, he will continue to present China as an alternative to Western influence, even if it means maintaining a united front with Russia, a relationship that looks more like a marriage of convenience than of love. He will also have to set a deadline and type of action for reunification with Taiwan. These major challenges, among many others, will monopolize this man, who concentrates more and more power in his hands and who seems a prisoner of his own logic.
A Chinese proverb says that “he who rides a tiger is afraid to come down”. Xi Jinping rides an animal that he himself has fed for 10 years, but which he no longer has the leisure (nor the intention) to land on pain of being devoured. Its destiny is intimately linked to that of China… and to that of the rest of the world.