The conflicts of history have normally ended in two different ways: by the destruction of his enemy who is forced into an unconditional capitulation or by a separate peace where each of the belligerents agrees to make concessions.
In the light of the current situation in Ukraine, it is difficult to think of the realism of the first scenario, hence the reason why a way out of the crisis through negotiation and mutual concessions appears to be the only possible option: a prospect that is difficult conceivable at the moment, but which risks imposing itself when the conflict has reached a deeper level of stalemate.
The question that arises is that of knowing who will be able to act as a mediator enjoying the attentive ear of both Russia and Ukraine as well as a real capacity to force the latter to engage in real negotiation.
After announcing his intention to wage “all-out war” on Russia and making calls to stifle the Russian economy, in addition to thinly veiled threats of regime change in Russia (and blaming ad nauseam Vladimir Putin to be a mentally unstable leader), the West has definitively deprived itself of its ability to one day act as an impartial and seemingly disinterested mediator. The severing of the last ties between us and Russia is most likely final and irreparable in the short and medium term.
This is therefore a great opportunity for the Chinese regime of Xi Jinping who, it must be admitted, is faced with a major dilemma, hence the reason why Beijing has constantly called on Russia and Ukraine to negotiate, and this, until the last hours which preceded the invasion.
On the one hand, due to the many economic as well as security ties that have been developed in recent years between Russian and Chinese dictators, Xi Jinping simply cannot condemn Putin’s Ukrainian adventure. On the other hand, this war is no less a thorn in the side of China, which has developed in recent decades a great economic interdependence with Kiev, whose stability is now threatened by the war.
In addition, the success of Xi Jinping’s pharaonic “silk road” project, which he himself describes as the greatest project of all time, which consists of linking the Chinese market with the Europe, requires a peaceful Ukraine, since an important part of this project involves access to the Black Sea via the port of Odessa. China has a lot to lose in this war.
In addition, China has an enormous capacity to influence its Russian neighbor. With economic sanctions now hitting Moscow very hard, Vladimir Putin’s ability to keep his economy afloat now largely depends on the Middle Kingdom, which has so far refused to sanction Russia. This dependence of Russia on China is further validated by Vladimir Putin’s frequent visits to Beijing and by his jovial attitude towards Xi Jinping during these, which is inversely proportional to the deference he shows towards his Western counterparts. .
In short, China is perhaps currently the only possible mediator in the context of this conflict, whose intercession could also be beneficial to its image on the international scene, which has been severely damaged by of the pandemic. The ” soft-power Chinese therefore currently needs a new lease of life, and bringing a peace deemed impossible to the gates of Europe could contribute exponentially. The prospect of Xi Jinping receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022 is therefore not as wild as it first appears.
However, if this scenario were to occur, we must be aware that this “Chinese peace” would risk being achieved in the absence of the West, whose ability to occupy a seat at the negotiating table after the recent escalation of his measures and his accusations against Vladimir Putin. A peace in Europe in the absence of the Europeans as well as a peace that would be favorable to Chinese interests: this is the price that we may have to pay.