X-ray | A radical within the German far right

Feared Holocaust denier Björn Höcke is set to win regional elections in Germany on Sunday, a first for the AfD

Why we are talking about it

Thuringia represents only 2.5% of the German population. But all eyes will be on this small Land (state or province) located in the east of the country this Sunday. The reason? A “historic” victory is announced for the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and its regional leader, the sulphurous Björn Höcke, with 30% of the vote.

Shock, passion and remigration

Described by the Guardian As “Germany’s most feared politician,” Björn Höcke fascinates with his impassioned speeches, peppered with shock phrases. His anti-elite and anti-immigration rhetoric resonates in a region where nationalism and feelings of downgrading are particularly pronounced. His hobbyhorse? “Remigration.” Controversial within the party, this fantasy of mass expulsion of foreigners is fully assumed by Höcke, who advocates “a major program of expulsion of illegal immigrants” by plane.

Everything for Germany!

Höcke is more than just a local figure. It is partly thanks to him that the AfD has gone from a eurosceptic and liberal party in ten years to a nativist (pro-native German and Christian) anti-Islam and climate denier party. Having become the incarnation of the German extreme right, he is accused of neo-Nazi tendencies by his opponents. His sensational statements seem to support this.

In 2017, he described the Holocaust memorial in Berlin as a “monument of shame.” He has also been fined thousands of euros for ending speeches with the slogan “Everything for Germany,” which is officially banned because it was used by Adolf Hitler’s SA, the famous Brown Shirts, during the rise of Nazism in the 1930s. Höcke has claimed not to have been aware of it. That excuse is unacceptable, says Axel Salheiser, a researcher at the Institute for Democracy and Civil Society in Jena, Germany. “When you type those words into Google, the first few entries you get are related to Nazism. The connection is obvious. Plus, Höcke was a history teacher. Of course he knew!”

A well-established party

Founded in 2013, the AfD is already well established in the regions of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR), where it has been able to take advantage of the malaise and the feeling of inequality (wages, pensions) compared to the western states. Having entered the Bundestag (federal parliament) in 2017 in the wake of the 2015 migration crisis, the party seems to be experiencing a second wind, having even obtained its best score in the last European elections with 15% of the vote. In addition to Thuringia, it is also predicted to do well in Saxony (where elections are also scheduled for this Sunday) as well as in Brandenburg, on September 22. The party is also likely to benefit from the Islamist attack that left three dead on August 23 in Solingen (west of the country) and brought the debates on immigration and security back to the forefront. A serious signal, one year before the federal elections, believes Axel Salheiser: “We can see it as a trial balloon. In the long term, other provinces might want to follow Thuringia’s example.”

Hello, Sahra Wagenknecht

The other big story of these regional elections is the expected breakthrough of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a party recently created by Sahra Wagenknecht, a former charismatic figure of the radical left and a key figure in German politics for 30 years.

If the trend continues, the BSW could win 19% of the vote in Thuringia, two points behind the Christian Democrats (CDU, classic right, 21%), but far ahead of the socialists (SPD, center left) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who are predicted to win a disastrous 7%. On the left in economic terms, but conservative in moral terms, the BSW advocates for a better social safety net, but also more security, less immigration, fewer rights for LGBTQ+ minorities, fewer environmental rules and advocates for a total halt to the sending of arms to Ukraine, being considered by some as pro-Russian. “This is a positioning that was lacking among the East German electorate,” argues Bénédicte Laumond, researcher at CESDIP (Centre for Sociological Research on Law and Penal Institutions). There seem to be places to be taken on that side.”

An unprecedented alliance?

Even if it wins – which would be a first for a regional election – it is unlikely that the AfD will take control of the regional parliament, because the other parties rule out any collaboration with it, by virtue of the famous “cordon sanitaire” against the extreme right. The scenario of a coalition between the CDU and the BSW is however not excluded, the two parties being able to claim a majority together, despite their differences on the social level. “It would be an unprecedented coalition”, summarizes M^me Laumond. But Thuringia would not be at its first political laboratory: it is in this Land, in fact, that the Nazi party came to power for the first time, in 1930, in a coalition with the classical right…

With Agence France-Presse, Euractiv, Al-Jazeera, the GuardianPBS and Fondapol