Denis Coderre’s political career is impressive. Between 1997 and 2011, he won six elections in a row in the Bourassa constituency. In November 2013, six months after leaving federal politics, he was elected mayor of Montreal. Seven in seven! With his 16 years spent as a deputy and minister then his mandate as mayor, Denis Coderre will have held an elected position for two full decades.
The way matters too. Within the Liberal Party of Canada (PLC), Mr. Coderre has survived four leaders. After his defeat in 2017, he returned to form in spectacular fashion. He is now back in the public eye after recovering from a stroke. It’s not trivial.
But is Denis Coderre really a “winner”, in the political sense? And would he really help the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ), whose leadership he now covets? A Léger poll shows that his arrival at the head of the PLQ would give a modest boost to the party.
The machine went into overdrive. Coderre “effect”. “Wave” Coderre. He could even “resuscitate the PLQ”. A little more and it will start shouting “Denis! Dennis! Dennis! » on the way to Compostela. The thesis of the savior remains attractive for the media, who bend over backwards to offer a platform to Denis Coderre, who asks for nothing else. And then, it would add a little spice to the non-race for the leadership of the PLQ.
But when you stick to the facts, the balloon deflates.
Before his victorious streak in the House of Commons, Mr. Coderre lost his first three elections. A by-election in 1988 in Joliette, won by a progressive-conservative MP; another partial in 1990, this time in Laurier–Sainte-Marie, against Gilles Duceppe, then a newcomer to politics; a defeat in Bourassa during the 1993 general election, against Osvaldo Núñez, also of the Bloc Québécois.
Denis Coderre’s political beginnings attest to his perseverance, but the fact remains that in hockey language, we would speak more of a Steve Bégin than of a Guy Lafleur. Moreover, Emmanuel Dubourg, who succeeded Mr. Coderre as representative of the PLC in Bourassa, won his four victories with an average lead of 33 points, compared to 18 for those of Mr. Coderre.
The 2013 mayoral race
In 2013, Denis Coderre was widely favored to win the mayorship of Montreal. Richard Bergeron, the leader of the opposition, was considered radical. The two other visible candidates, Marcel Côté and Mélanie Joly — now a minister in Ottawa — were unknown to the public.
A month before the election, a poll gave 39% of voting intentions to Mr. Coderre, 16 points more than Richard Bergeron. A week later, another poll gave him 41% support; Mélanie Joly is second, at 26%.
On November 3, 2013, Denis Coderre was elected mayor with 32% of the votes, and finished 6 points ahead of Mélanie Joly. The campaign appears to have harmed Mr. Coderre more than it helped him. The more Montrealers saw him, the more they looked for someone else. Twice as many people voted against him as for him.
Would he have won in a two-person fight? We’ll never know, but we had a good idea four years later.
The 2017 mayoral race
The 2017 election promises to be a formality for the outgoing mayor. Valérie Plante was little known at the time. In June, Denis Coderre had a lead of 16 points. In September, he led by 9 points. At the end of October, a survey gives Mr. Coderre and M.me Tied plant. Another place Mme Plant forward by 3 points.
On November 5, 2017, Valérie Plante beat Denis Coderre by 6 points (51.4% of the vote, against 45.7%). Some will say that Mr. Coderre fought himself. Maybe that’s kind of the point.
The 2021 mayoral race
History repeated itself in 2021, this time with Mr. Coderre in the role of comeback kid against Mayor Plante.
In spring 2021, polls showed Denis Coderre winning by 17, 8 and 12 points. In August, the lead was still 9 points. In September, it had melted to 1 point. The campaign hadn’t even officially started! At the end of October, the two candidates were tied. Just before the election, two polls gave Mme Winning plant, by 5 and 6 points.
On November 7, Valérie Plante outranked Denis Coderre by 14 points, with 52.1% against 38.0%. Once again, the campaign did not help Mr. Coderre, who made numerous blunders. Imagine general elections where the spotlight of all of Quebec would be constantly turned on him, and in which four parties would have an interest in tripping him up…
And the PLQ?
The Léger poll which gives Denis Coderre the favorite to win the leadership of the PLQ also gives 21% of voting intentions to a PLQ led by Mr. Coderre. It’s better than the disaster of 2022. But it’s worse than in all the other elections since the PLQ existed… Again, would a possible campaign help Mr. Coderre? Or would it rather remind us why we don’t miss him that much, politically speaking?
Even for the chiefdom, it is not settled. Among the very hypothetical opponents named in the survey, only one has confirmed his candidacy: MP Frédéric Beauchemin, who was expelled from the Liberal caucus before being readmitted recently.
The other four have already said they will not take the plunge: MP Marwah Rizqy; interim leader Marc Tanguay; Antoine Dionne-Charest, son of former Prime Minister Jean Charest; and Balarama Holness, a fringe candidate for mayor of Montreal.
In short, Denis Coderre, in the pre-campaign for a month, would beat four candidates who will not be, and another whom the PLQ does not really want. Moreover, in the same poll, “Don’t know/refuse” received 33% of support from liberal voters; Denis Coderre, 27%. That doesn’t make strong children.
Which means it’s perhaps a little premature to talk about the “Coderre effect”, “wave” and “resurrection”.