World population to peak at 10.3 billion in 2080 and then begin to decline, UN predicts

The number of inhabitants is expected to drop to 10.2 billion around 2100, according to a UN report.

A sharper deceleration than expected. The world population will continue to increase, from 8.2 billion humans in 2024 to around 10.3 billion in the 2080s, according to a study by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, published on Thursday, July 11. It should then fall back to 10.2 billion around 2100, or 700 million less than the projections made in June 2013.

“The demographic landscape has changed a lot in recent years”explains in a press release the Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, Li Junhua, highlighting the faster-than-expected decline in the birth rate in many countries, notably in China. This slower population growth is “a sign of hope” in the face of climate change, he said. “This could translate into a reduction in human impact on the environment”he added, warning however that efforts in this direction would have to be maintained.

More than a quarter of the world’s population (28%) lives in one of 63 countries where the population has already reached its peak, including China, Russia, Japan and Germany, according to the report. About 50 other countries are expected to join this group in the next 30 years, including Brazil, Iran and Turkey. Population growth will continue beyond 2054 in more than 120 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, the UN said.

The decline in mortality, interrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, has resumed, with an average life expectancy of 73.3 years in 2024, which is expected to reach 77.4 years in 2054. As a logical consequence, the ageing of the world population is increasing. Towards the end of the 2070s, the number of people over 65, expected to be 2.2 billion, will exceed that of those under 18, according to the study.