The world’s population will peak at 10.3 billion in 2080 before beginning to decline, a steeper-than-expected slowdown, according to a UN report on global demographic change.
According to this study by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) published Thursday, the world population will continue to increase, from 8.2 billion people in 2024 to around 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s.
It should then fall back to 10.2 billion around 2100, i.e. 700 million less than the projections made in June 2013.
“The demographic landscape has changed significantly in recent years,” said UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Li Junhua in a statement, highlighting the faster-than-expected decline in birth rates in many countries, including China.
This slower population growth is “a sign of hope” in the face of climate change, he said. “This could translate into a reduction in human impact on the environment,” the UN official said, but warned that efforts in this direction would have to be sustained.
More than a quarter of the world’s population (28%) lives in one of 63 countries where the population has already reached its peak, including China, Russia, Japan and Germany, according to the report.
About 50 other countries are expected to join this group in the next 30 years, including Brazil, Iran and Turkey.
Population growth will continue beyond 2054 in more than 120 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States, the UN said.
The decline in mortality, interrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, has resumed, with an average life expectancy of 73.3 years in 2024, which should reach 77.4 years in 2054.
A logical consequence is that the world’s population is ageing more rapidly. By the end of the 2070s, the number of people over 65, projected at 2.2 billion, will exceed that of those under 18, according to the study.