The world’s political and economic elites meet next week in Davos with the stated ambition of “cooperating in a fragmented world”, between war in Ukraine, climate change and globalization in existential crisis.
This year, the meeting organized by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss Alps ski resort “is held in the most complex geopolitical and geo-economic context for decades”, underlined the president of the WEF, Borge Brende , during a briefing this week for journalists.
The COVID-19 pandemic, trade disputes between China and the United States, and the war in Ukraine have contributed in recent years to multiplying geopolitical fault lines and fueling more protectionist policies.
“One of the main causes of this fragmentation is a lack of cooperation”, and it results in “short-term and selfish policies”, regretted the founder of the WEF, Klaus Schwab, denouncing “a vicious circle”.
To the point even for some to wonder about the future of globalization, for half a century at the heart of the philosophy defended in Davos.
There was a time “of hope for a return to the old normal, which was this sort of globalized world,” Karen Harris, partner and economist at consulting firm Bain & Company, told AFP. “I believe there is a recognition today that this era is coming to an end”, even if, according to her, there will remain cooperation “around a smaller set of issues”.
“Even the climate is becoming a more isolationist battle,” she notes, referring to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which provides large subsidies for companies established in the United States in the sector of electric vehicles or renewable energies. , or even carbon taxes at the borders, currently being implemented in Europe.
A year of war
Nearly a year after Russia invaded Ukraine, the conflict and its effects on global energy and defense policies will dominate much of the debate in Davos.
If the Russians are absent for the second consecutive year, a Ukrainian delegation is expected in Switzerland, and President Volodymyr Zelensky has planned to intervene remotely.
The opportunity for them to address hundreds of political figures such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres or NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, some 600 business leaders, many media, and representatives of civil society: NGOs, researchers, and even stars like actor Idris Elba or soprano Renee Fleming.
Climate is emerging as another key topic, with organizers hoping the talks will help prepare for the next round of global talks at COP28, to be held later this year in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.
Activists meanwhile plan to use the meeting to remind wealthy countries and energy groups of the need to fund developing countries’ energy transitions and pay for the damages from the natural disasters that accompany climate change.
The JSS (Swiss socialist youth) calls for demonstrations on Sunday in Davos for “a tax targeting the rich for the climate and the cancellation of the debt” of the countries of the south.
As every year, however, the most important activity in Davos takes place behind the scenes, with business leaders, investors and politicians taking advantage of being gathered in one place to discuss on the sidelines of the official conference.
“In four days, in a private suite, they can do more business than in several months of flights around the world”, notes the American journalist Peter S. Goodman, author of a book released last year and entitled The Man from Davos: How billionaires devoured the world.
For him, the most important contribution Davos could make would be to push for global tax reform, to reduce inequality.
Karen Harris also hopes at Davos for “frank discussions” on what developments in the global economy will mean, not just for the United States, Europe or China, but also “for emerging markets, which so often are the losers in economic developments”.