Posted at 5:50 p.m.
Qualification scenarios
When and how can Canada finally qualify?
In first place with 25 points in the standings, including 4 ahead of the United States, Canada is in an enviable position. He could confirm everything on Thursday, against Costa Rica. One victory and we don’t talk about it anymore. Otherwise, he will have to hope for one of these scenarios in the other matches:
- with a draw, he would need a Panama loss OR a draw against Honduras;
- with a draw, it would need a win OR a draw for Mexico against the United States;
- with a loss, he would need a loss OR a draw for Panama against Honduras AND a win for Mexico against the United States.
Of course, Maple Leaf players don’t want to consider these scenarios. They are aiming for first place and an invincible course in qualifying.
But they also have another goal: the third hat of the draw.
The what ? The third hat – out of four – of the group draw for the World Cup, which would in theory allow the best-placed teams that qualified for the tournament to be avoided.
And to be part of the third hat, you have to have the best FIFA ranking possible. How do we do it? Basically, you have to win games.
Canada is currently ranked 33and in the world – the best ranking in its history – behind Nigeria and ahead of Mohamed Salah’s Egypt. There are 32 teams participating in the World Cup. To be in the third pot, Canada must be ranked higher than eight other participating teams. These last eight teams would be in the fourth hat.
Why is this important? Because being part of the third hat instead of the fourth, Canada’s draw could be more advantageous to him. He would be part of a stronger group of teams, and therefore would have a higher chance of being paired with weaker selections.
Basically, John Herdman’s men not only want to qualify quickly, they want to do it with panache. In this way, they would put all the chances on their side next November.
What to expect from opponents?
The clash to be taken more seriously is the one against Costa Rica on Thursday. They are a hungry team, fighting for survival in qualifying.
Los Ticos are currently fifth in the Octagon, with 16 points. One point behind fourth place, held by Panama. This position makes it possible to go all out in a play-off match against a team from Oceania.
Costa Rica have won three of their last four games, giving them a second wind in these qualifiers. The Canadian attackers will have to rub shoulders with goalkeeper Keylor Navas, one of the best players in the world in his position, even if Paris St-Germain currently prefers the Italian Gianluigi Donnarumma.
It’s never easy to play at the Estadio Nacional in San José. The match will also be sold out, with a crowd of approximately 35,000 spectators.
But the motivation is not lacking in the Canadian camp.
He could arrive in Toronto to face Jamaica in a real party atmosphere. The Reggae Boyz are already eliminated from qualifying (7 points, 3 losses in a row), and do not pose a great threat to the fired up Canadians. Keep in mind, however, that Jamaica held Canada to a 0-0 draw in Kingston last October.
But if the ticket for Qatar is not yet purchased at this time and he gets it on March 27, this match could become one of the most significant moments in Canadian soccer, which has not been lacking in the last years.
In the worst-case scenario – only defeats and unfavorable results elsewhere – the very last match against Panama could become dangerous. He too needs all possible points. And Los Canaleros, at home, have that aggressiveness that can knock their opponents out of their game plan. Canada absolutely does not want to need to get any results in Panama to ensure qualification.
But we are not there yet. Herdman’s men have their fate entirely in their hands. Either way, it’s already guaranteed that Canada won’t finish lower than fourth.
Featured Montrealers
Herdman offered a big surprise to Canadian and Montreal fans on Sunday: the young Ismaël Koné, who made his professional debut with CF Montreal this season, was recalled by the Canada coach.
At just 19, the midfielder has already taken part in seven games in 2022, including six starts. He even made his mark offensively, already scoring two fine goals and adding two assists to his tally.
“One of the things I noticed about him was his mentality,” Herdman said by videoconference on Sunday. During [du match du CF Montréal contre Atlanta samedi], he demonstrated that resilience that is so important to being part of our team. You can make a mistake, but then get over it and produce a performance like he did. »
But let’s be realistic: it would be surprising if Koné played important minutes for Canada this week. His addition to the team is probably more aimed at securing his international career with the maple leaf, he who also has Ivorian nationality.
Herdman could thus bring him into the field at the end of an already folded meeting, a question of ensuring that his talent does not escape the promising future of the selection. Under new FIFA rules, players under the age of 21 must step onto the pitch three times rather than once to confirm their membership of a selection.
But with only a handful of professional matches under Koné’s cleats, Herdman is already impressed.
“I have never seen a profile like his, for a midfielder, since the time I have been in office,” he added.
Koné will also have a few Montreal teammates with him to help him integrate into the group: Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller will be able to support him.