The prospect of a second round, in many constituencies, between the extreme right and the left agitates the presidential camp, which has made La France insoumise a scarecrow.
“I have panic fear of what will happen to us”, blurts out a Renaissance figure. Since the announcement of the dissolution by Emmanuel Macron on the evening of the European elections, Sunday June 9, and the organization of early legislative elections, the presidential camp has lived in fear of losing dozens of seats in the National Assembly. Caught between the National Rally and the left united under the colors of the New Popular Front, the supporters of the Head of State fear the results of the first round, organized on June 30. The Macronists know it: the dynamic is not on their side, they who suffered a heavy defeat in the Europeans.
Although it is still too early to anticipate the second round, which will take place on July 7, the possibility of elimination of the central bloc candidate is strong in many constituencies. This will be the case “in a clear majority” between them “given the balance of power”, assures Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos. What will the candidates of the presidential party do in this configuration, which could be unprecedented in its scale? “They should have resolved this subject by finding a position internally, but there is an inability to build collectively”observes Vincent Tiberj, sociologist and professor at Sciences Po Bordeaux, who notes “inconsistency” positions expressed so far.
In the absence of a clear line decided by Renaissance and its allies, everyone goes with their personal declaration. “I said that I never put an equal sign between the extreme left, even La France insoumise, and the extreme right of the National Rally or Reconquête”, thus affirmed the former minister and outgoing MP Clément Beaune, on franceinfo, June 15.
“I will always vote, I say this very clearly, if there is a second round one day between an RN candidate and any candidate, including from LFI, for the candidate who is opposed to the RN.”
Clément Beaune, outgoing MPon franceinfo
The former minister and outgoing MP for Gironde, Bérangère Couillard, shares the position of her former colleague in the government. “I will always call for voting against the extreme right. This is my primary commitment”, she confides to franceinfo. But now, the “everything except the RN” line is in the minority within the presidential camp. Because if Jordan Bardella’s party can win the legislative elections, this is also the case for the New Popular Front, within which La France insoumise – under fire from criticism since October 7 – is the movement with the most candidates. During his press conference on June 12, Emmanuel Macron also returned back to back the “two blocks”, “two extremes”. “The Macronist camp bears a responsibility when it says that the RN is racist and that the left is anti-Semitic. It puts them on the same level even though they are not the same thing,” contests Vincent Tiberj.
Result: everyone holds a different position on the attitude to have towards LFI. Marc Ferracci, outgoing deputy and very close to the Head of State, distinguishes the personalities within Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s movement. “If I have to decide between an RN candidate and, for example, Thomas Portes [député LFI sortant]who put the head of the Minister of Labor on a football to step on, I can tell you that I will go fishing because the incarnation does not suit me”he declared on LCP on Friday.
Many representatives of the presidential camp clearly refuse to choose between an LFI candidate and an RN candidate. The Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin, who is representing himself in his stronghold in the North, said on CNews on June 13 that he would not vote “not for an RN candidate, nor for an LFI candidate”, in the event of a duel. Same position on the side of Minister Sabrina Agresti-Roubache, also a candidate for re-election in Marseille. “I will not call to vote for either RN candidates or LFI candidates, who are not looking for voters, but victims”she assured on CNewsJune 17.
The day before, on RTLMinister Olivia Grégoire had not only rejected LFI but more broadly the candidates of the New Popular Front: “If the question were asked to me, I would vote blank.” And the former government spokesperson added: “The Popular Front is the Nupes, we are not going to lie to each other, and to vote for the Popular Front is to vote for Mélenchon.” A shortcut because, at this time, the different parties of the New Popular Front have not designated their candidate for Matignon, nor even decided how to resolve this question.
Will the clear-cut positions of these ministers still be tenable on the evening of the first round? “The candidates will never be able to do ‘neither-nor’. We will have to call for a barrier by voting for the New Popular Front”, anticipates a member of the Renaissance campaign team. “We shouldn’t mess around, though. LFI and the RN are not the same thing.”
The divisions within the presidential camp on this subject are not new. In June 2022, at the time of the previous legislative elections, differences had already appeared on the position to take in the event of duels between LFI, member of Nupes, and the RN. If certain voices were raised to call for clear support for left-wing candidates, LREM (former name of Renaissance) was reluctant to give national voting instructions. “In the presidential election 2022, to block Marine Le Pen, they asked for a Republican vote from voters who feel cheated and disappointed”recalls researcher Vincent Tiberj.
“In the 2022 legislative elections, the reciprocal of the Republican front was broken.”
Vincent Tiberj, researcher and sociologistat franceinfo
The development is notable compared to Emmanuel Macron’s past positions on the far right, particularly at the time of his accession to the Elysée. “We always build our political commitment on indignation. Mine is April 21, 2002”he explained in October 2016 to Figaro Magazinein reference to the day when Jean-Marie Le Pen qualified for the second round of the presidential election. In April 2022, interviewed by Le Figarothe outgoing president had again refused to put an equal sign between the two camps. “I make a profound distinction, because they come from very different movements. But, in relation to the republican field, they provide simplistic answers and untruths which cultivate fears”he had qualified.
If the RN is still targeted, the movement launched by Jean-Luc Mélenchon seems much more dangerous today than in 2022 in the eyes of many Macronist executives. “I saw to what extent for two years they messed up the chamber, to what extent they did not respect the French, nor the institution, nor the mandate they had, nor their colleagues”, estimated Yaël Braun-Pivet on LCI on Friday. The outgoing president of the National Assembly “considered” that LFI does not carry “the values of our Republic”.
For the first round, the presidential coalition decided to take the lead by choosing not to nominate candidates in around 70 constituencies. “We are making this choice either because we were not in the best position to reach the second round, or because we are lining up behind the incumbents”, justifies a Renaissance framework. The objective is to facilitate the qualification of the candidate judged to be Republican in the second round, whether he is from the left and opposed to the New Popular Front, or from the right and against the rapprochement between Eric Ciotti and the RN.
Above all, the executives of the majority, like François Bayrou (MoDem), on LCI, and Edouard Philippe (Horizons), on BFMTV, refuse to consider elimination in many constituencies on the evening of June 30. And therefore to take a position for a duel from which they would be absent. The government is also on this line. “I will answer the question of the second round the day after June 30”supports Prisca Thevenot, government spokesperson.
“Let’s stop jumping over the first lap. It gives the feeling that we’re giving up!”
Prisca Thevenot, government spokespersonat franceinfo
To avoid having to make this choice, the majority hopes a surge in its electorate, in order to reach the 12.5% mark of registered voters in as many constituencies as possible and thus qualify for the second round. “At 70% participation, there are 300 triangulars, that can change everything”, wants to believe François Patriat, close to Emmanuel Macron. Faced with the RN and the New Popular Front, Renaissance and its allies would have a ready-made argument to try to limit their decline on the evening of the second round: defend the camp of the “reason” facing “extreme” sent back to back.