with global warming, does this competition still have a future?

The competition is expected to be held in the French Alps. But rising temperatures complicate the organization of the winter sports event, and raise questions about its relevance.

Is it still reasonable to organize the Winter Olympics and Paralympics? France thinks so. The candidacy of the French Alps for 2030 was the only one accepted by the International Olympic Committee (IOC), Wednesday November 29. Barring a cataclysm, it should be officially chosen in July 2024. And allow France to achieve an unusual double, after having hosted the Summer Games in Paris in 2024.

While the effects of climate change caused by human activities are increasingly visible in France and around the world, Emmanuel Macron has promised the Games “sustainable”. The president of French National Olympic and Sports Committee (CNOSF), David Lappartient, ensures that the “the candidacy has of course taken into account the issues of transition and those of global warming”. Decision-makers suggest that 85% of the proposed sites already exist or will be temporary installations. But this French candidacy is nevertheless divisive. Several NGOs, associations and elected officials opposed a project whose relevance they questioned, pointing in particular to the environmental cost of artificial snow.

Increasingly uncertain snowfall

The president of the CNOSF brushed aside these criticisms, insisting that the tracks will be “overwhelmingly” covered with natural snow, and that the use of snow cannons will be limited. But this debate illustrates the very real consequences of global warming on the Winter Games, as on many sports competitions organized in the mountains this season. While figure skating, ice hockey and all other indoor sports do not really suffer from rising temperatures, outdoor events – alpine skiing, cross-country skiing, biathlon, snowboarding – are dependent on the weather. , snow cover and therefore the climate.

The more the years go by, the fewer candidates are likely to organize the Winter Olympic Games in February and the Paralympic Games in March. According to a study published in 2022 in the journal Current Issues in Tourism, only four of the 21 sites where the Winter Games have taken place since 1924 will be certain of being able to host such an event in 2050, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to follow the current trajectory. The host city of the first winter Olympics, Chamonix, is thus judged “not trustworthy”, like Grenoble and seven other cities. Eight sites present a risk “marginal” unsuitable weather conditions, including Albertville. On the horizon of the end of the century, Sapporo (Japan) is the only former organizing city which could still host the high mass of winter sports without incident – ​​there would be eight if warming is limited to 2°C compared to the pre-industrial era, as predicted by the Paris agreement.

This growing uncertainty is accompanied by an increase in the use of artificial flakes. The practice began at the Lake Placid Games (United States) in 1980. Then there were the Vancouver Olympics in 2010 and their deliveries of snow by helicopter; those of Sochi, in 2014, and their powder stored several months in advance; and finally the Beijing Games in 2022, the first to be held on 100% artificial snow.

Multiple consequences for athletes

The authors of the study published by Current Issues in Tourism surveyed nearly 400 athletes and coaches about the ideal conditions for competition. Athletes prefer groomed or artificial snow, because of its density and reliability. On the other hand, they fear atmospheric conditions – temperature variations, wind, fog – which can make the snow soft or impassable. “The temperature is as important, if not more, than the presence or absence of natural snow”explains to franceinfo Daniel Scott, Canadian geographer and lead author of the study.

As such, “It’s probably best to do [les JO d’hiver] in France than in Saudi Arabia, which must organize the Asian Winter Games in 2029”observes Michaël Ferrisi, founder of the media Ecolosport, who is interested in the ecological transition in professional sport. “But the Games, and by extension the competitions that take place in winter, are no longer very viable.”

The cancellation of the four downhill events at Zermatt-Cervinia, between Switzerland and Italy, in mid-November, recalled the difficulties of the Ski World Cup in dealing with climate change. In France, a study estimated in August that 93% of resorts in the Alps and 98% of those in the Pyrenees would be in danger if global warming reaches +3°C compared to the pre-industrial era. A trajectory that current policies are drawing for 2100.

“There are two options: either we take note [du changement climatique] and we turn to a more sober model, or we reproduce what was done in Beijing, with artificial snow.”

Michaël Ferrisi, specialized in the ecological transition of professional sport

at franceinfo

For David Roizen, expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundation and specialist in sports-related issues, sobriety is not on the agenda: “The IOC, like other major organizers of sporting events, is pursuing a race for gigantism. The weight of sponsors is such that we continue as before, without asking the question of the environmental impact.”

The IOC in search of “solutions for the future”

The International Olympic Committee has, however, started to reflect on the Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games and their viability in the era of climate change. In 2022, its executive commission had notably approved the introduction of two criteria for the choice of hosts of future Winter Games: the use of existing or temporary venues, as well as conditions “climatically reliable until at least the middle of the century.

According to studies commissioned by the IOC, only ten countries will still be able to host the Winter Games by 2040, compared to around fifteen today. Its president, Thomas Bach, recognized in October that the organizers had to “adapt the Winter Games taking into account the impact of climate change, and seek solutions for the future”. “The more the years pass, the fewer the options will be, while the environmental issue will grow., predicts David Roizen.

The Winter Olympics are not doomed, however. “There will be climatically reliable host sites in North America, Europe and Asia until the end of the 21st century”, believes Daniel Scott. But the researcher is more pessimistic about the Paralympic Games, which traditionally take place in March, after the Olympic fortnight. A month “much more threatened by climate change”. For the geographer, bringing them forward to February, or even organizing them simultaneously in another city or another country, could prove imperative.