Will the pension reform bring in as much as expected and make it possible to make the savings expected by the government? The question of the balance of the system arises more and more as parliamentary debates progress.
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After a very difficult first passage at first reading in the National Assembly, the text is now in the hands of senators. As the debate progresses, the savings shrink to a trickle.
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At such so much so that the Senate’s Social Affairs Committee figures the system’s deficit at 600 million euros by 2030. We are therefore very far from the expected balance and we even find ourselves with a financial hole, albeit limited. The executive, however, expects from the reform a surplus regime of slightly more than four billion euros by the end of the decade.
Expensive concessions and a bill that could still increase
Various social measures have been decided, generally government concessions to calm the debates, but these have a cost. For example: the revaluation of small pensions, the maintenance of the departure at 62 years for people with disabilities or invalidity, the strengthening of the long career system… And the list is not exhaustive. This would represent a total of additional expenditure of the order of six billion euros.
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The senators, for the most part very critical of the reform, could further increase the bill with new measures such as a 5% pension surcharge for mothers. We are talking about an additional cost of 300 million euros for this measure alone. Another senatorial proposal: a senior CDI, a permanent contract exempt from family contributions to convince companies to hire the over 60s. This measure alone, estimated at around 800 million euros, is viewed with suspicion by the government.
Consequently, the reform appears to have been emptied of its effectiveness. By raising the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 and accelerating the increase in the contribution period, the government initially intended to make up for the 13.5 billion euros deficit forecast for 2030. The reform was even supposed to generate a surplus of some four billion. Obviously, all this has already done “pschitt“.
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