All the successive governments in Quebec in recent years have promised to live up to the province’s climate ambitions, but none have succeeded. The party that will be elected in October will have a Herculean task to hope to do better and avoid a bitter failure by 2030.
November 2009. Premier Jean Charest announces that, by 2020, Quebec will reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% compared to their 1990 level. Canada’s climate ambition and to abolish the federal carbon tax if he becomes leader of the Conservative Party of Canada then said he was convinced that he could go even further.
We know the rest. Even though it engulfed nearly $6 billion in its 2013-2020 Climate Change Action Plan (PACC), Quebec experienced a resounding failure. Its GHG emissions have fallen by just 2.7%, according to the official report for 2019 published in December 2021. Annual emissions per capita today reach 9.9 tonnes. Climate experts believe, however, that to meet the most ambitious objective of the Paris Agreement, which is to limit climate change to +1.5°C, it should be capped at two tonnes, at most.
Despite the magnitude of the task facing the next government, the Coalition avenir Québec says it is convinced that it can put Quebec on the path to carbon neutrality if it is re-elected in October, as polls are currently predicting.
In an attempt to reduce GHGs by 37.5% by 2030, compared to their 1990 level, the Legault government is relying on its Plan for a Green Economy (PEV). By 2027, 7.6 billion dollars are planned and so far, 51% of the actions necessary to reach the target have been defined and financed, specifies the Ministry of the Environment and the Fight against Climate Change ( MELCC). The electrification of transport, mainly of individual cars, and the reduction of emissions from the industrial sector monopolize a good part of the sums of the PEV.
Unrealistic goal
The experts consulted by The duty agree on one point: the CAQ plan will not make it possible to achieve the 2030 objective.
According to the Chair in Energy Sector Management at HEC Montréal, the current Quebec GHG reduction strategy reproduces several of the elements of the PACC that led it to failure, in addition to lacking ambition, particularly in transportation, a sector responsible for 43% of Quebec’s emissions.
In a report published in June, the Trottier Institute of Polytechnique Montréal points out that it would be possible, at best, to reduce emissions by 25% to 30%. But to achieve this, it would be necessary to impose right now “coherent and strong actions, affecting all sectors”. The document highlights, for example, the need to counter the systematic use of “single driving”, to curb the growth of the car fleet and to review land use planning, in addition to “accelerating” the deployment of public and active transport. .
These findings are in line with those of the most recent reports of the Grouof intergovernmental experts on climate change (IPCC). He considers it essential to implement radical changes in our “ways of life”. This requires a reduction in the need for motorized transport (including air travel), but also by planning cities that must allow travel by public transport, on foot and by bicycle. In this context, the densification of urban areas becomes essential, while this development model has never been implemented in Quebec.
The IPCC also underlines the need to preserve natural ecosystems and restore those that have been degraded by human action, to green our cities and to fundamentally transform our diet, which still includes a significant contribution of animal products. . However, this production generates enormous quantities of GHGs, including methane. Over a 20-year period, its warming effect is 80 times more powerful than CO2.
The organization therefore pleads for a shift towards a “healthy diet”, ie a diet comprising mainly “plant-based” foods. On this last point, the MELCC replies that “the government does not recommend a particular diet, because it is based on individual choices”. However, he specifies that “citizens concerned about reducing the GHG emissions associated with their plate could favor foods with a lower carbon footprint”, including “products of plant origin”.
The cult of the car
Holder of the Mobility Chair and the Canada Research Chair in People’s Mobility at Polytechnique Montréal, Catherine Morency deplores a lack of vision when it comes to transportation. Governments, she summarizes, refuse to question the omnipresence of the car in our cities, but also the increase in the size of vehicles.
Public financing of the purchase of electric cars is a mistake. We give money to people so that they buy cars and we know that it is not the most disadvantaged who are going to benefit from it.
“There should be fewer cars and the population should not be forced to buy one or more vehicles to access their daily activities. But we are only talking about electric vehicles. Vehicle sharing, more efficient use of space and energy sobriety, these are words that we don’t hear. And I believe that the electrification of transport will still be practically the only key put forward, which is a bit catastrophic. »
To change the paradigm, according to her, it is urgent to go much further. “Public financing of the purchase of electric cars is a mistake. We give money to people so that they buy cars and we know that it is not the most disadvantaged who are going to benefit from it. From an equity point of view, we are not going very far with this measure. Why not offer incentives to citizens who decide to get around on foot, by bike or by public transit? We have to fund good behavior,” argues Ms.me Morency.
In the same breath, she qualifies the third Québec-Lévis link as an “anachronism”. “If the new bridges and freeway extensions had worked as well as their promoters claimed, there would be no congestion. We want to sell infrastructure, but without going around the issues we are trying to respond to, ”underlines Mme Morency.
Always superficial vision
A point of view shared by the economist François Delorme, specialist in climate issues. According to him, this CAQ project is proof that climate change is always treated superficially. “We are running out of time to reduce our emissions, so it is more important than ever to subordinate all our decisions to the imperatives of the climate crisis. This is not the case with the third link. The independent environmental assessment of the project will not take place before 2023.
Professor in the Department of Strategy, Social and Environmental Responsibility at UQAM, René Audet for his part insists on the need for a “transformation of our societies” which goes beyond individual gestures, such as owning an electric car. .
We are not talking about economic planning, although that is at the heart of the matter. There is no anticipation of the future, beyond GHG reduction targets. There is no desire for control or regulation.
“We are not used to thinking in this perspective, while the scale of the task, to reduce GHGs and the consumption of resources, will require a profound social reorganization. But for the moment, it is free enterprise that decides on the establishment of factories, production, etc. We are not talking about economic planning, although that is at the heart of the matter. There is no anticipation of the future, beyond GHG reduction targets. There is no desire for control or regulation. »
Director of government relations at Équiterre, Marc-André Viau believes that political decision-makers underestimate citizens’ will to act. “I don’t think people are ready to make all the necessary changes overnight. But I think they are ready to do more than governments. They are in favor of public and active transport, a greater place for vegetable proteins, etc. They are concerned about the impacts of climate change on their lives, especially on their health. So, if the issues are properly explained, people will be ready to do what is necessary. »