Will Michel Barnier lift the “taboo on tax increases”?

The 2025 budget promises to be very complicated to finalize and here is Matignon starting to rekindle the tax debate. What if Michel Barnier was a man without taboos? What if Emmanuel Macron’s fifth Prime Minister buried the original taboo of Macronism, the refusal of any tax increase? For seven years, Bruno Le Maire jealously enforced this precept written in gold letters, at the very top of the Tables of the regime’s law: taxes, you shall not increase! Barely has the tenant of Bercy had his farewell party that the new head of government could well break this lock. Be careful at Matignon, tax is still a dirty word. We are talking about “greater tax justice”according to information gathered by franceinfo on Tuesday, September 17 from Michel Barnier’s entourage and it is emphasized that nothing has been decided. The idea is gaining new followers.

On Wednesday, it was the president of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, who converted to it in an interview with Parisian-Today in France. He also judges that the time has come to “lifting the taboo on taxes”, because reducing spending will not be enough to restore financial balances. Same position of the head of the Court of Auditors, Pierre Moscovici. In fact, those who do the accounts are beginning to resign themselves to the inevitable, but Michel Barnier’s problem is that those who make, or could make, his majority remain fundamentally hostile to it. The LR right first, but also the central bloc. Gabriel Attal questions the participation of the Macronist camp in a government that would increase taxes and he has an appointment on Wednesday with Michel Barnier to tell him so. This Wednesday morning, Gérald Darmanin repeats that he is “out of the question” for the Macronists to participate in the government under such conditions. As for the RN, it threatens to censor Michel Barnier in the event of a tax increase.

On this subject, Emmanuel Macron represents another major obstacle to overcome. By constantly making an economic choice a political red line, the head of state has tied the hands of his successive governments. He would have a hard time digesting a tax shift without flinching. So be careful, these potential tax increases would only concern very high incomes, large groups brimming with record dividends, the super profits of energy companies or even the taxation of share buybacks. But overall, the bill would still be hard to swallow for Michel Barnier’s supporters. Given the calamitous state of public finances, does the new Prime Minister still have a choice? We remember General De Gaulle’s famous apostrophe on his return to power: “Why do you want me to start a career as a dictator at 67?” At 73, Michel Barnier could well begin a career as a tax collector.