Will Justin Trudeau know how to choose the moment of his departure?

(Ottawa) The discontent is more and more palpable. The popularity rating of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals is down. A recession looms on the horizon as galloping inflation eats away at family budgets. Such a context should be conducive to long reflection.

The Prime Minister’s Office announced over the weekend that Justin Trudeau is heading to Costa Rica for a two-week family vacation. Far from the spotlight – and especially far from the people who invective him in person or on social networks about the ills that afflict Canadian society – he could take the opportunity to impose himself an essential exercise for any Prime Minister after three electoral victories: has the time to pass the torch come?

Will Justin Trudeau take advantage of his stay in the sun to think about his future by taking a walk in the sand? If so, he could somehow follow in the footsteps of his father, Pierre Trudeau, who decided to bow out in February 1984 after taking a walk in the snow.

Behind the scenes, we certify that the main interested party did not mention his intention to combine business with pleasure on the beaches of Costa Rica to take stock of his political intentions. He also hasn’t discussed his future plans with his inner circle to ensure a smooth transition over the past few months.

After last fall’s election, the Prime Minister wasted no time in announcing that he intended to run again, even though he only allowed Liberal troops to win a second term. minority right away by calling early elections.

To say otherwise would have had the effect of weakening his leadership at the end of a difficult electoral campaign.

But in the Liberal ranks, many doubt that he will try his luck to obtain a fourth term in a row – a feat that no prime minister has achieved since Wilfrid Laurier at the beginning of the last century.

Especially since under his leadership, the Liberal Party lost the popular vote to the Conservative Party in the last two elections, even though the Liberals were able to hang on to power by winning more seats due to the efficiency of their vote in urban centres.

Not to mention that the Liberal candidates were repeatedly told, going door to door during the last campaign, that their leader was no longer the man for the job.

Difficult months ahead

In the spring, Justin Trudeau also managed to buy time by concluding a formal agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP). This agreement ensures the survival of the minority Liberal government he is leading in the House of Commons until June 2025. In exchange for the support of New Democrat MPs during confidence votes, which include budgets, the Liberals will undertake to adopt certain measures such as a national program of dental care for low-income families, among other things.

The latest polls predict difficult months for the Liberal troops, who have been in power since 2015.

The rate of dissatisfaction with the Trudeau government is up five percentage points in two weeks and is now at 51% – a high in seven years – according to the firm Abacus Data, which polled the opinion of 2,400 Canadians between July 22 and July 27.

The satisfaction rate is only 34% – the lowest rate since the SNC-Lavalin affair in the spring of 2019.

In his great wisdom, the former Premier of Quebec Robert Bourassa invited his MNAs to take an interest in the rate of satisfaction of voters with the government in order to properly assess their chances of re-election.

The same poll also reveals that 51% of respondents have a negative impression of Justin Trudeau and only 31% have a positive impression of him. It is also the worst score recorded by the Prime Minister for seven years, highlights the firm Abacus Data.

The last few months have been marked by a series of failures in the federal government that have been highly publicized: the passport crisis, the long delays in obtaining employment insurance benefits or even the mess at the Department of Immigration in issuing visas and receiving Ukrainian refugees.

“Thirst for change”

Engaged in a leadership race for several months, the Conservative Party holds a five-point lead over the Liberals according to the same poll. Without a leader, the Conservative Party garners the support of 35% of respondents, against 30% for the Liberal Party of Canada. The NDP is holding on at 19% nationwide. The identity of the next Conservative leader will be known on September 10. Pierre Poilievre is seen as the race leader, although supporters of former Quebec Premier Jean Charest say the game is far from over.

In Quebec, the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois are neck and neck in terms of voting intentions, winning 32% and 31% respectively. The Conservative Party comes third with 21%, while the NDP would only get 6%.

According to David Coletto, of the firm Abacus Data, these results show that “the thirst for change” is starting to work on the federal scene. “These results are a warning to liberals,” he says in his analysis.

In a sign that we are approaching the end of a cycle in Ottawa, some Liberal MPs are considering making the leap into municipal politics.

Such is the case of MLA for Brampton North, Ruby Sahota, who was first elected in 2015 and who is toying with the idea of ​​running for mayor of Brampton in the municipal elections in Ontario in the fall.

So too is Surrey-Newton MP Sukh Dhaliwal, who has already confirmed his intention to run for mayor of Surrey in the municipal elections scheduled for October in British Columbia. Others might be tempted to follow suit. In addition, close associates of Justin Trudeau and certain ministers left their posts following the federal election last fall.

Historically, most prime ministers have proven incapable of properly choosing when to pass the torch, with the exception of Lester B. Pearson and Mackenzie King.

One thing is certain, many are impatiently awaiting a signal from Justin Trudeau. The Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, and the Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, François-Philippe Champagne, are part of the lot.