Will debt repayment become the largest expense in France’s budget in 2027, as RN Philippe Ballard claims?

According to the spokesperson for the National Rally, the repayment of interest on the debt would take precedence over the National Education budget in 2027. In reality, there are two ways of evaluating the latter.

While the resigning government, in place for 38 days, is preparing the 2025 budget, the spokesperson for the National Rally Philippe Ballard stated on franceinfo on Thursday August 22 that debt repayment could become France’s largest expenditure item. “In the last budget, we were at a debt interest repayment of 48 billionhe explains. In 2027 we will be at 80 billion. First budget item ahead of National Education, ahead of Defense.”

In reality, this statement depends on how you look at the figures. First, a clarification: according to a report from the Senate Finance Committee published last month, debt interest repayment could reach a little over 72 billion euros by 2027, not 80 billion, as Philippe Ballard says. If we look at the entire National Education budget, including teachers’ pensions, this budget reaches 87 billion euros in the 2024 finance bill. So, debt repayment remains second.

That said, if we do not take into account teachers’ retirement pensions, the National Education budget falls to 63.6 billion. The repayment of debt interest would actually take precedence over National Education and become the largest expenditure item in 2027. That said, all of this remains projections. The Senate warns about the trajectory of public finances which could change, depending on the government in power.

Philippe Ballard also says that debt interest will increase sharply in three years, between now and 2027. This statement is confirmed by all projections. Still according to the Senate report, debt interest repayments currently represent a little over 46 billion euros. And this should increase continuously to reach, in 2027, the famous 72 billion mentioned above.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by 2030, the debt burden will increase much more significantly in France than in Greece, Spain or Italy. This is due to the fact that France’s debt, which reaches more than 3,000 billion euros, is greater than those three countries.

If France’s interest rates are increasing so much, it is because bank interest rates have skyrocketed over the past two years. This is true for an individual who takes out a mortgage as well as for a State that borrows money for its operating expenses. To give you an idea: France was borrowing at 1% in 2022 while today it is almost 3%.